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  #11  
Old 06-25-2005, 10:49 PM
Oluwafemi Oluwafemi is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 268
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

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i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself.

1 deck of cards, pencil, paper

removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results:

1 - H1
2 - H1
3 - H2
4 - H2
5 - H2
6 - H2
7 - H1
8 - H1
9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!)
10 - H1
11 - H1
12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!)
13 - H1
14 - split (A222Q)
15 - H1
16 - H2
17 - H1
18 - H2
19 - H1
20 - split (AK288)
21 - H1
22 - H2
23 - H1
24 - H1
25 - H1

Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%)
Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%)
--2 split pots--

if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe

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you're right about the randomness. however, tell that to a player who's lost 30 buy-ins [not me] in the last 1 or 2 days [the short-term] to enough hands like A J vs A 6 all-in.

i've played about 60 $5.50 NL SNGs on Stars [3 and 4-tabling] the last two weekeds and profited about $24. i dropped as much as 12 buy-ins during that period in 3 hours precisely to hands just like that. and the street i lost to those hands the most on? should'nt be hard to guess, the River. when i look at how many of those hands i lost too, as opposed to, how many i sucked out with--- it's nowhere near the same frequency. i can't count how many times i played a hand perfectly, whether pre-flop or on the other streets, only to have a dagger named "Miracle" float up on the Riverbank. after losing to so many hands like that i such a short period of time, the last thing i wanna hear or trust in is the "randomness". all it's done is piss me off about all the money that could be in my account right now.

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Variance. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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give that man a buy-in for whatever level he plays. i can't wait for you to write a book on poker terms i already know about. even Amazon.com's Super Saver Shipping is'nt enough
get me to purchase it. however, maybe if you throw some tangerine-caramel Gators in with my order, i might reconsider. i got a pimp-tight suit that's perfect for 'em.
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  #12  
Old 06-25-2005, 11:04 PM
Oluwafemi Oluwafemi is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 268
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

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the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...

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And that's all she wrote. In the last 25 tournaments I've played, I've busted out in way-ahead hands that I PF'd all-in:

KK vs. K2 (spikes a second two on the turn)
KK vs. KQ (spikes a straight on the turn)
AA vs. 76 (spikes a straight on the river)
AA vs. 63 (HU push on J63 flop, but should have been an all-in PF since he was likely pot-comitted to call, but I insta-pushed the flop and I lose.)

Needless to say, I took today off to not think about poker (for the most part) and transitively, the suckiest bunch of suckouts I've ever sucked.

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actually, you got off cheap. i lost with those same type of hands within a 7-10 SNG stretch- A A, twice in the same SNG in different games, A A back to back in two different games, A Q [TPTK on the flop] to beat on river. that's not counting losing to A A twice again in the same SNG, A K [TPTK on a flop] to a flush beat on the river to a guy who called off all his chips on the turn with no made hand- only the draw, trip 10s [on the flop] who calls off all his chips to the river to catch a low straight, trips Queens w/ Ace kicker to a guy who calls off a massive amount of chips to catch a diamond flush on the river after calling a preflop raise with 4 7 diamonds. i've lost to so many hands like this in the last 60 or so SNGs that i did'nt even bother to write them down. when i look back and try to evaulate my play, there's nothing to evaulate other than the lucky stupidity of my opponent winning out far too frequently.
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  #13  
Old 06-25-2005, 11:15 PM
4T25Q85 4T25Q85 is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 99
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

If you think that online poker has rigged decks, then cash out right now and never let online poker enter your mind again.

However, if you insist on playing a rigged game, then it would be best to no longer play premium hands and simply push with the afor mentioned A6o. At least this way you'll have a better chance at winning
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  #14  
Old 06-25-2005, 11:50 PM
Oluwafemi Oluwafemi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 268
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

[ QUOTE ]
If you think that online poker has rigged decks, then cash out right now and never let online poker enter your mind again.

However, if you insist on playing a rigged game, then it would be best to no longer play premium hands and simply push with the afor mentioned A6o. At least this way you'll have a better chance at winning

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're talking to me, keep it to yourself. my grind at the $5.50s is slow, predominately, because of bankroll setbacks to these types of plays, of which i don't blame on online poker being rigged--- only on more crappy luck than good. between last night and today, i made back about 10 buy-ins due to regular, usual solid play. am i proud about that? NO! i'm pissed at having to even make those buy-ins back. it's not even the losses or the hands, you can't win them all. it's the money i think about. i'd rather play my regular/solid game and be up 10, 12, 15 buy-ins for the day than have me be down playing the same way but losing to these crud hands, then have to grind it back up the next day to get even. there's no fun in that. i get no solace out of playing a solid game and losing, especially to these types of hands. i only think about and care about winning, PERIOD!
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  #15  
Old 06-26-2005, 12:33 AM
Losing all Losing all is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: South of Heaven
Posts: 577
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

[ QUOTE ]
i was going to give you an exercise, but decided to do it myself.

1 deck of cards, pencil, paper

removed (hand #1) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] & (hand #2) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i turned over 5 cards, noted the winner - shuffled, and repeated 25 times. here are the results:

1 - H1
2 - H1
3 - H2
4 - H2
5 - H2
6 - H2
7 - H1
8 - H1
9 - H2 (straight flush!!!!!)
10 - H1
11 - H1
12 - H1 (flopped J6JT6 - two boats!!)
13 - H1
14 - split (A222Q)
15 - H1
16 - H2
17 - H1
18 - H2
19 - H1
20 - split (AK288)
21 - H1
22 - H2
23 - H1
24 - H1
25 - H1

Hand #1 Wins: 15 (64%)
Hand #2 Wins: 8 (32%)
--2 split pots--

if someone had seen me play hands 3 through 9, they would have suggested that i stacked the deck (A6 is a 71% favorite?!?!). the simple point is this: the hands that i, you, anyone witness aren't nearly a large enough sample size to accurately obtain the given 'odds'. not to mention the psychological effect of being sucked-out upon...those events have the tendancy to adhere a little better to our memory than the times when we are on the sucking-out end. you are merely experiencing randomness in all of it's beauty and glory -- while some will bang the conspiracy drum, i choose to simply [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] in awe

[/ QUOTE ]

Awesome post!

ps. hands 3-6 OMFG!! RIGGED!! UNREAL!! LOL!! RIVER STARS!! PARTY BS!! FUCCIN UB!! etc, etc!!
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  #16  
Old 06-26-2005, 03:02 AM
Nick M Nick M is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 10
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

Are you whinning about your 60 SNG sample results???
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  #17  
Old 06-26-2005, 01:07 PM
Oluwafemi Oluwafemi is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 268
Default Re: Poker Stars PF all-ins %

[ QUOTE ]
Are you whinning about your 60 SNG sample results???

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i'm not whining about my 60 SNG sample. i'm pissed at my results over that sample--- there's a difference. it is what it is. enough beats with hands like A J vs A 6 in the short-term, regardless of randomness, has devastated my earn rate over that sample. i remember reading something that Chip Reese said in Aces & Kings where he said he lost about $2 or $3 million over a couple of days in The Big Game where he kept getting drawn out by the worse hand. he said he played some of the best poker in his life. he felt that if it was a lesser player, they would have lost maybe $5-$6 million [somewhere around that amount]. over that 60 game sample, i played well enough to be up at least an extra 20 buy-ins, but yet i'm barely up 5. i could care less how much a lesser player could've lost over the same run, i only care about what i DID'NT WIN .
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