Daily Hand Post : AJo in MP

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey guys,

10-handed from today/yesterday's session. Loose average 28/6 UTG limps, 2 folds to a similar MP limper, I raise next to act with AhJc. One fold, 31/9 CO calls (12% CC), 24/5 Button calls (7% CC). SB folds, BB calls, both limpers call. 6 to the flop for 12.5 SB's.

Flop comes: A J 6 r

BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets. I raise, CO calls, Button 3-bets. Folded back to MP who calls, I cap, CO folds, Button and MP call. 3 to the turn for 13.2 BB's.

Turn comes: 4 putting two clubs on the board

MP checks, I bet, Button folds, MP calls. HU for 15.2 BB's.

River comes: 9 completing the flush draw

MP checks, I bet, MP raises.

Any questions???

GoT

[bakku]

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Any questions???

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Did you fold?

edit: No, I'm not folding here ever.

[Thomsen]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
Any questions???

GoT

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- I really fancy the Atomic All Mountain B5 Puls - do you think its a good pick ?

[jason_t]

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Any questions???

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What did you do?

[chesspain]

GoT,

This seems totally standard until the river. I imagine that MP has an ace. I guess the question is whether he has Acxc and caught runner-runner, or whether he has A4/A6/A9, as he could have been planning to c/r the turn but decided to wait until the river to be "tricky" once it was heads-up.

With no post-flop reads on the MP, I'm not prepared to raise and fold to a cap, and there is no better hand he will drop to a checkraise...so I will just call the river checkraise, and expect to lose more than 50% of the time.

P.S. All of the above assumes that the floped ace wasn't a club. Points deducted to GoT for not providing this information. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Moozh]

One question: which flop card is the club?

Personally, I'd probably always call here. That doesn't mean it's the correct play.

Since the theme of these posts seems to be hand ranges, let's take a look at MP. His limp doesn't tell you much at all, but his flop bet does. If he's a bit loose/passive, you can usually count on him having at least a pair to bet out on the flop into a field that large. When the betting is raised and 3-bet back to him, his call definitely shows he has a pair. Since the guy is a bit loose, but not overly so, it seems unlikely that he would call with a weak jack (but not impossible). On the other hand, it seems very likely that he could call down with a middle or weak ace if he had a backdoor draw to go with it.

That's why I'm curious which flop card is the club. If the ace of clubs is out, then his possible backdoor flush draw would have to contain at best a jack (and possibly, though unlikely, a six). If the jack or the six is the club, then he could potentially be holding Ax of clubs, which would make it much more likely that he could have hit the flush.

[einbert]

Was the 6 or the A on the flop a club?

If the flop contained the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I threebet. It just seems to bizarre for MP to lead the flop with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and much more likely that he hit his A9.

If the flop contained the 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], it is much more likely that I am beat and I just call down.

[Nick C]

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GoT,

This seems totally standard until the river. I imagine that MP has an ace. I guess the question is whether he has Acxc and caught runner-runner, or whether he has A4/A6/A9, as he could have been planning to c/r the turn but decided to wait until the river to be "tricky" once it was heads-up.

With no post-flop reads on the MP, I'm not prepared to raise and fold to a cap, and there is no better hand he will drop to a checkraise...so I will just call the river checkraise, and expect to lose more than 50% of the time.

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Yeah, unless the ace on the rainbow flop was a club, I'm not happy about this river checkraise at all.

[aK13]

I've been pretty reluctant to post anything in these daily hand posts, as the last two have been so over my head, and this is GuyOnTilt =).

Anyways, I think everything looks pretty standard here. I don't know wtf Button is doing 3betting and folding the turn, but whatever.

I'd like to know if the A is a club or not.

By the river, villain's range is possibly 99, J9, A9, Jx clubs, Ax clubs (if flop A is not club), and rarely a slowplayed AA, JJ, 66, A4, A6, AK, AQ, AJ, 44 (probably would have popped the turn with these), and even more rarely J6, J4 (probably would fold these preflop).

I don't see us losing here more than 1/18 to make this fold.

[jgorham]

Your hands are fun:

Based on his action, I am ~100% sure villain doesn't have a set here. He lead into the PFR on the flop, and didn't cap the flop or raise the turn. Yet he raised on the river. A lot can be read from his flop bet, and subsequent calling of 2 cold: this guy has an ace. On the river, facing the checkraise, you just need to calc the odds he had AcXc vs the odds he had A9o.

If the A on board was a club, I think this is an easy three bet. But if the 6 was a club (and the A was offsuit - which i am pretty sure is the case here), we need to do some math. There are two aces left in the deck for villain to hold, and 3 nines (9c on board). Thus, 6 variations of A9o are possible for villain.

To see how many AcXc are possible, we just give villain credit for the Ac and count down. AK, AQ, AT, A8, A7, A5, A3, and A2 are all possible - making 8 variations. But, villain would have raised AK and AQ suited preflop, so those hands are out, leaving villain with 6 possibilities here.

But taking this line of thought a little further, villain didn't know the turn card would be a club, and therefore there is a substantial chance that some of those weaker AcXc hands would have folded the flop. Beyond that, there is a chance that villain would also raise AcTc preflop. So I would weight the A9 hands as more likely than the AcXc hands.

So because of all that, I am prone to 3betting the river. But before I do, we must consider whether or not this player would fold A9 to the 3bet here, and I think the answer is clearly no. The other consideration is whether or not villain would cap this river with anything hero beats - again, I think the answer is no.

This is an amazingly thin edge to push, but I say 3bet the river and fold to a cap.


NOTE: all of the above is presuming that villain is mostly a decent player, just a little too loose and a little too passive. I think this is a safe assumption given the stakes (and the fact that GoT posted this in the first place), but if that read wasn't true the above analysis would be off.