Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour - Page 3

grjr · #21 06-05-2005, 05:05 PM

OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

jrz1972 · #22 06-05-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen your PT numbers out of the blinds, and I will just be honest and say that I don't believe them. I'm not saying you're just making them up; I'm saying that you're going to get well-acquainted with a concept called "reversion to the mean" sometime in the future. They're far out of whack with any other set of stats I've ever seen posted, and the fact that you semi-coldcall all day long with suited junk out of the SB makes me even more convinced that you're just running well from those positions.

In answer to your question, though, I'm at (.13) in the BB and (.12) in the SB. I think my PT BB winrate is overstated.

Redd · #23 06-05-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grjr, the fact that you feel one's winrate from a single position has any bearing over the number of hands anyone here has played shows that you're misunderstanding at least one concept.

You said you're not playing for high card value at all here; then would you also complete 52s into an UTG raise?

grjr · #24 06-05-2005, 06:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grjr, the fact that you feel one's winrate from a single position has any bearing over the number of hands anyone here has played shows that you're misunderstanding at least one concept.

You said you're not playing for high card value at all here; then would you also complete 52s into an UTG raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Now don't go and misquote me. I said "I'm not that concerned with high card strength". T7s is a better hand than 52s because a pair of tens (or sevens) will win a lot more than a pair of fives. With more callers though I would probably call with 52s but not here.

The point about the winrate from the blinds is that the people who think I'm nuts for calling all these raises from the blinds with suited "crap" might ought to consider that perhaps I'm doing something right. Maybe I've been lucky, I don't know, but I've been lucky for 40,000 hands so far.

Remember, every time you fold a blind you've lost money.

Redd · #25 06-05-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I've been lucky, I don't know, but I've been lucky for 40,000 hands so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you've played about 4000 small blinds. Lets assume a generous global 10% average PFR, giving you a chance to make 400 cool-completes (Note that this is also ignoring blind-steal situations). Assuming you call half of them, that's a sample size of 200 hands that you're using to determine whether or not it's profitable to CC from the SB. Do you think this is statistically significant?

If you want to examine the situation where you're coldcalling an UTG raise (which I think is important here), it becomes more like 15 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Remember, every time you fold a blind you've lost money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time you post a blind, you've lost money. Every time you fold, the expectation is 0 EV. Every time you call a hand that you shouldn't, the expecation is -EV.

I think I'm done with this thread. I've made my case, and there's not much else I can add to the subject. You're welcome to take or leave everyone's opinions here.

Shillx · #26 06-05-2005, 06:39 PM

How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Trips+: 1.45%
2-pair: 2.02%
Flush Draw or Flush: 11.78%
Straight or OESD: 3.9%

Total: 5.4:1 against

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

aron · #27 06-05-2005, 06:41 PM

Hi Brad!

Seen you posting stats like this before, where do you get them from?

-aron

Shillx · #28 06-05-2005, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Brad!

Seen you posting stats like this before, where do you get them from?

-aron

[/ QUOTE ]

Brain power. The straight and straight draw ones are kinda tricky to figure out. Each way that you can flop a straight or straight draw that only uses one hole card is .33% and each straight draw that uses both hole cards (so in this hand a 98x flop) is 3.3%. You also have to consider that monotone flops are bad (so I don't factor those in) and that they overlap with flush draws from time to time. So in reality, you will flop each straight draw combo 2.6% of the time and each straight combo .26% of the time.

Brad

grjr · #29 06-05-2005, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How often will you hit a home run flop here?

Trips+: 1.45%
2-pair: 2.02%
Flush Draw or Flush: 11.78%
Straight or OESD: 3.9%

Total: 5.4:1 against

You are getting 5.7:1 here (at best). With the rake, I think that this is a fold. It is very close though.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

But you're leaving out the times you win with a pair of tens. I just now had the hand that follows. (Note: I don't usually call with this but I was in the middle of reading comments about my loose ways and was a little aggravated [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, Hero calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (10.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 10.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9c Th (two pair, tens and eights).
UTG+1 has Ac Ks (one pair, eights).
CO has Ah Kh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 10.75 BB.

grjr · #30 06-05-2005, 07:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I think I'm done with this thread. I've made my case, and there's not much else I can add to the subject. You're welcome to take or leave everyone's opinions here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate you taking time to respond to this. I assume you realize you won't change my mind though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I just want to say one thing about EV calculations. It's my opinion that most people who do them don't account enough for implied odds; especially in multiway raised pots. I may be wrong but that's the way I look at it.