#1
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Should I Stay or Should I Go?
'Stars $27 + 2 satellite to Sunday's $200 + 15 NLHE. Winner gets the buy-in, 2nd gets $28.
3 left Button (4620) SB (6135) BB-Me (2745) Level 50/100 (Yeah, it's been a bit wild) Button has been fairly tight, but limps a lot. SB has been aggressive, showing his hand a lot when opponents fold. Showing bluffs, weak TP, middle pair, etc. IN other words, when he bets strong - wide range of hands. I get K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB Button limps, SB raises to 300, both call. (900) Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB bets 600 Your decision? My decision and results later. |
#2
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
Im pushing over the top.
Ive got a few outs, but mainly i dont think he has anything. With the flush draw, and possible overcard outs i think this is great time for a semi-bluff; not to mention the winner takes all pay structure. Phill |
#3
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it.
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#4
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
[ QUOTE ]
If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it. [/ QUOTE ] Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, NEVER MAKE A -EV PLAY BECAUSE URE BETTER THAN THE FIELD AND U CAN OUTPLAY THEM LATER, OUTPLAY THEM NOW!!!!!!!!!(for online tourneys, I might accept someone folding a 56% edge preflop on a tourney where the blinds go up every 3 hours) This is such an obvious, obvious push, he has 19 outs to improve more realistcly like 14 to someone with a hand. |
#5
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
How's he going to outplay them when they both have him outchipped 2:1? The time to outplay them is now. Push.
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#6
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
[ QUOTE ]
This is such an obvious, obvious push. [/ QUOTE ] What he said [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If SB had been showing the wide range of hands you describe, then with the blinds at 50/100 and ~24BB in the bank I'm not getting involved. It sounds like you are better than him and you have plenty of time to prove it. [/ QUOTE ] Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, NEVER MAKE A -EV PLAY BECAUSE URE BETTER THAN THE FIELD AND U CAN OUTPLAY THEM LATER, OUTPLAY THEM NOW!!!!!!!!!(for online tourneys, I might accept someone folding a 56% edge preflop on a tourney where the blinds go up every 3 hours) This is such an obvious, obvious push, he has 19 outs to improve more realistcly like 14 to someone with a hand. [/ QUOTE ] This brings me back to my post In a winner take all (or close enough to it), I would push... --LoO |
#8
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
I think folding is the worst option here. The SB is not a tight-ass, and he's going to make life miserable for you if you choose the 'fold and try and outplay them' option. You have to either push or call. I think you have 14 adjusted outs here, which means you're a slight favorite, 51.2%, against the SB HU. If you push, I think he would fold at least 10% of the time. Does this sound reasonable? Therefore, I think you have to push.
I think folding is the worst option, calling is better (since the blinds are so low), and pushing is the optimal play. |
#9
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Re: Should I Stay or Should I Go?
[ QUOTE ]
I get K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB Button limps, SB raises to 300, both call. (900) Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I got this far into your post. Push. |
#10
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RESULTS
Thanks for the replies. My thinking was similar to the responses, an average of about 11 outs twice if he was ahead and no way to be drawing dead,
I pushed, he called and showed K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so I was actually ahead. Unfortunately, the turn was the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and no [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 9 showed on the river to save me. |
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