Making my set on the turn

Jester999 · #1 05-23-2005, 02:26 PM

For you pokertracker fiends, the villain in this hand is a
10/5 guy over about 400 hands with a postflop agression factor of 6. If he's been watching (and I suspect he has), he'll see me as 18/8 in this session with like 2.75 postflop.

The minraise on the turn threw me off a bit as in my experience it means a big hand. Maybe this guy has a smaller set, A3, or just a medium pair and is trying to push my around. As a matter of full disclosure, it's only my second time at this level so I'm getting used to it.

Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 10 handed) converter

SB ($392)
BB ($157)
Hero ($465.83)
UTG+1 ($384)
UTG+2 ($190.4)
MP1 ($232.16)
MP2 ($200.84)
MP3 ($198.9)
CO ($462.2)
Button Villain ($716.92)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, 3 folds, MP2 calls $4, 2 folds, Villain calls $4, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($20) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 folds, Villain calls $20, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($60) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $40, Villain raises to $80, Hero calls $40.

River: ($220) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets $150, Hero calls $150.

Final Pot: $520

Yeti · #2 05-23-2005, 02:30 PM

Ugh, raise preflop.

3-bet this turn, maybe make it $180 more.

A smaller set is a lot more likely than A3.

LuvDemNutz · #3 05-23-2005, 03:09 PM

I don't think 10/5 guys play A3.

CR all in on the river.

BloodyRomance · #4 05-23-2005, 03:11 PM

3 bet turn and push river. shouldn't be scared of QQ since they would raise in position. A3 suited is possible, but i don't understand pokertracker stats. i think you're good, try to get it all in.

thabadguy · #5 05-23-2005, 03:18 PM

Raise preflop, raise river. I think you're good here most of the time, but since there was no raise preflop, not impossible for some1 to have A3.

Yeti · #6 05-23-2005, 03:21 PM

$150 more is probably better actually.

And I disagree with calling and cr'ing the river.

Any ace, three, six, or club could potentially kill your action.

LuvDemNutz · #7 05-23-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
$150 more is probably better actually.

And I disagree with calling and cr'ing the river.

Any ace, three, six, or club could potentially kill your action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed-

I guess my point was that I don't see much reason to fear A3 - so as played (with Hero checking the river), might as well put it all in.

RoboRob · #8 05-23-2005, 04:17 PM

besides A,3 it's possible he could have 3 6 too

Raise preflop!

Jester999 · #9 05-23-2005, 05:04 PM

I posted this and had to leave. I'll make some more comments in a little while, but I will leave y'all with this real quick.

Most of the time I raise UTG with JJ and then sometimes I don't. This time I didn't raise, so please get past that aspect of the hand.

BTW, thanks for taking the time to reply. I honestly appreciate the opinions.

creedofhubris · #10 05-23-2005, 07:29 PM

Put as much money into this pot as you can. Reraise turn. Bet river.