Borgata 20/40 Hand, Interesting Turn CR

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2) I was not on tilt at all (scrub ), I had a balanced line of thought in approaching this hand based on the players and specifically the aggressor and my position relative to his.

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Making a move on the turn that has very little chance of dragging the pot isn't any smarter because it worked this time.

Taking ill-advised shots at pots on the turn because you haven't been running well is pretty much the according to Hoyle definition of tilt.

At least you bet the river.

scrub

[peachy]

i think ur the best babe!!!

actually i woulda done the same or folded....but u have a read on the table and i know how u play...so i agree with ur raise there...and its not something u do often on a board like this with a hand like u have...so i dont see this as a neg thing for u overall....but then again i hear or see ur hands 1st hand more than others...so i know ur logic...


plus the whole being good friends for 5 yrs thing...

[AviD]

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2) I was not on tilt at all (scrub ), I had a balanced line of thought in approaching this hand based on the players and specifically the aggressor and my position relative to his.

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Making a move on the turn that has very little chance of dragging the pot isn't any smarter because it worked this time.

Taking ill-advised shots at pots on the turn because you haven't been running well is pretty much the according to Hoyle definition of tilt.

At least you bet the river.

scrub

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You are right I wasn't running well, but I was taking a shot because of the factors mentioned...not because I wasn't running well. But, as you said, the results do not matter...which is why I posted the hand.

I'd imagine I just got lucky, my instincts just happened to coincide with the positive results.

As I said, I don't make these moves often, and certainly not into this large of a field. I can't say I'll do it again, but I can't say I won't. If the situation presents itself and I have the same "instinctive feeling" that it can be done, I'll likely take a stab. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Its one hand, risking 2BBs to win 15BB...has to work 1 out of 7.5 times.

And of course I followed up with a river bet, what else am I going to do? Grab the pot and push it to the other guy to save the dealer time? Following through was a must.

[DcifrThs]

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NH...you felt solid about your read then made the move. I'm amazed that you could be so sure about your read on 8 players. It seems that regardless of read, the randomness of cards and pot size would make you show down at least pair to drag the pot.

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ding. effing. ding.

lets take it to the books: 14.5bb to you on the turn. getting 7.25:1 you need to take the pot down, RIGHT THERE 12.12% of the time. EDIT: each has a shared calling responsibility of 1.55% of the time. if one of them fulfills that responsibility, your break even % winning goes up. the chance of you taking it down RIGHT THERE is so slim its not worth your entire hourly rate (if you an amazing player in a live game) to try this move.

the one thing the quote i put up said was wrong was "NH"...you were lucky.

i respect your play matt and maybe you did have some read on all 8 players...but i doubt it.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

i just replied but this is a good opportunity to clarify:

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I'd imagine I just got lucky, my instincts just happened to coincide with the positive results.

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100% correct.

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As I said, I don't make these moves often, and certainly not into this large of a field. I can't say I'll do it again, but I can't say I won't. If the situation presents itself and I have the same "instinctive feeling" that it can be done, I'll likely take a stab. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Its one hand, risking 2BBs to win 15BB...has to work 1 out of 7.5 times.

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when YAK bet there were 13.5bbs there. make it 14.5bbs after he bets. you raise 2 to get 7.25bbs:1 or 1/8.25. you need to win it right there 12.12% of the time. each of the 8 callers needs to ONLY call 1.55% of the time (12.12/8). i dont like those odds.

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And of course I followed up with a river bet, what else am I going to do? Grab the pot and push it to the other guy to save the dealer time? Following through was a must.

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which you DID NOT factor into your initial raise thus increasing the cost of the move. effective odds are now even worse and the shared calling % actually moves down to near 1% for the 8 callers.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

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i think ur the best babe!!!

actually i woulda done the same or folded....but u have a read on the table and i know how u play...so i agree with ur raise there...and its not something u do often on a board like this with a hand like u have...so i dont see this as a neg thing for u overall....but then again i hear or see ur hands 1st hand more than others...so i know ur logic...


plus the whole being good friends for 5 yrs thing...

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you and avid can both learn alot from this situation.

imo it is wrong to raise here. if you wanted to find a leak, this is it. and its not the raise, or the instinct THIS TIME...but the desperate attempt to win a big pot which will occur more than this one rarity. especially at loose games which should be the most profitable. you, avid, and everyone has to understand that pulling these moves in loose games costs you money. i'd say this situational raise and bet (3bbs) cost avid probably over .75bbs in EV. to think these things will work is wishful thinking that does not belong at a poker table.

the "it" i referred to earlier was an instincual analysis that does not fully incorporate the math of the situation. you dont need to do all of that % up there...just look at the odds you're getting to pull the move and realize there is a shared calling % and that you may have to bet again.

-Barron

[MaxPower]

AviD,

Let's say 3 of your oponnents have 95% chance of folding, 3 have a 75% chance of folding and 2 have a 50% chance of folding. The chance that they will all fold is about 9% which is not enough to make your move profitable.

I think those estimates are overly optimistic. All you need is one person with a low chance of folding to make this a huge longshot.

You sound like the guy who cold-calls a 3-bet with pocket 2s against your aces, calls all the way on a AKQ flop, catches running twos and thinks he played the hand well. You hit a huge longshot, but that doesn't make it correct.

I'm all for trying to steal a huge pot, but at least have some outs and a smaller nubmer of players.

Hope to see you in AC this weekend.

[AviD]

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i think ur the best babe!!!

actually i woulda done the same or folded....but u have a read on the table and i know how u play...so i agree with ur raise there...and its not something u do often on a board like this with a hand like u have...so i dont see this as a neg thing for u overall....but then again i hear or see ur hands 1st hand more than others...so i know ur logic...


plus the whole being good friends for 5 yrs thing...

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you and avid can both learn alot from this situation.

imo it is wrong to raise here. if you wanted to find a leak, this is it. and its not the raise, or the instinct THIS TIME...but the desperate attempt to win a big pot which will occur more than this one rarity. especially at loose games which should be the most profitable. you, avid, and everyone has to understand that pulling these moves in loose games costs you money. i'd say this situational raise and bet (3bbs) cost avid probably over .75bbs in EV. to think these things will work is wishful thinking that does not belong at a poker table.

the "it" i referred to earlier was an instincual analysis that does not fully incorporate the math of the situation. you dont need to do all of that % up there...just look at the odds you're getting to pull the move and realize there is a shared calling % and that you may have to bet again.

-Barron

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While I did not prompt peachy to post and do not agree with her sentiments here...I am not sure I 100% agree with the mathematical only aspect of this hand.

This was NOT a desperation move, I did not feel like I just HAD to take a shot at this pot. I've let a TON of pots go the other way, and I don't play some loose aggressive bluffing style with a mentality that I MUST win EVERY pot I enter. It's NOT wishful thinking in raising in this spot.

I think there has been alot of confusion on exactly why I made the raise, and based on your response it appears it comes across as I was afraid of letting my hand go here. I wasn't playing my cards AT ALL on the turn, I was playing YAK and everyone behind me.

My cards didn't matter here at all, I watched this hand go down and saw how everyone reacted from preflop calling, to flop disinterested checking, to turn disinterested checking. I was 100% confident YAK was folding to my raise without question, so my only concern was would my raise push out a T IF anyone even held one, and oddly enough the only player I was worried about raising was the BB to my immediate left who is capable of CRing that turn to protect his T but certainly wouldn't 3-bet it. Everyone else (weak, loose, passive players) would call a single bet but doubtfully a CR. As oblivious as these players are, they DO recognize a check raise is a STRONG move and I am trying to represent that 6 IN THEIR MINDS. They see the two 6s, even if they have an 8 or a T, the still see those two 6s on board and me in the SB (who hasn't raised any hands in an hour or two) and have $80 to call. BB folded his T as it got exposed, so my read there was correct that he (and likely everyone else would fold even a T there). So my only final concern was if someone turned a flush draw and knew they could beat my represented 6 if they hit. Following up with a river bet was a necessary evil if someone called, just in case they had a stronger A than I did but knew they couldn't call a river bet. I got one caller and when he folds to the river bet, its obvious he had the flush draw.

And again, this is NOT a standard play for me with any regularity. And as I said in another post, I don't think I've ever made this type of play before. I just felt like there was a puzzle in front of me, and I had put all the pieces together and felt I had an excellent chance of stealing this pot. Above all else, this "move" was not some desperate or wishful attempt, I felt like I was making a strong move with a good chance at winning the hand. Again its not even my hand that was an issue, the cards were moot...I was entirely playing the table.

Another huge misconception or perhaps inability of my own is putting 9 people on hands. Who here can actually put 9 people on hands? I have no clue what they have, I just know that of the 9...none looked very confident or interested in continuing. That was a huge premise to my decision and I attempted to exert the maximum pressure in a large pot because I felt they would concede to that pressure.

If you factor that into the math, then I am expecting only strong draws better than a 6 to call...even in this loose game. And in this particular game, I felt these loose passives were very inclined to call 1 bet on any street but very inclined to fold to aggression as I had observed in previous hands.

I can't challenge the math directly because there is no "instinct" factor I can add to the computation, but if I was certain everyone without a 6 or a strong draw would fold and those same players would have bet a 6 or better on the turn, I can't see how that factor does not improve the chances of me winning this hand.

Again, I will keep this hand very fresh in my perspective as I've seen opportunities like this before but never pulled the trigger. Should I pull the trigger, I guess I'm still not confident I was right or wrong in this spot. Many of the arguments illustrated here are taking this hand entirely at face value, in a very static and straight forward manner. This is why it's hard to convey the dynamic nature of a specific game with specific players involved.

I don't see this opportunity presenting itself much, but I will consider all the advice and suggestions provided...I guess experience will tell the tale, and I am in full recognition that this type of play may indeed be -EV but I honestly think the only convincing factor for me will be experience and keeping track of it. I won't ignore what's been discussed and consider myself right, otherwise I would be ignoring a potential leak (although not significant because this situation hardly ever comes up for me).

Thanks for the feedback Mr. Stat Man! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DcifrThs]

great post, man!

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That was a huge premise to my decision and I attempted to exert the maximum pressure in a large pot because I felt they would concede to that pressure.

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this is actually quite similar to how i play live and remember a few mirage hands to that extent.

basically, if you trusted your read, then you can nullify some shared calling and increase your overall equity by raising here...well done if your reads were correct. but be wary of basing future actions on this success...

-Barron

[AviD]

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AviD,

Let's say 3 of your oponnents have 95% chance of folding, 3 have a 75% chance of folding and 2 have a 50% chance of folding.

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I think those estimates are overly optimistic.


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This isn't about optimism, this move wasn't based on hope, wishing, praying, or desperation. I wasn't making the move hoping N players would fold 95% of the time, I was making the move being almost certain I would win the pot. If I wasn't near certain I could win the pot I would have folded. I've folded in this spot so many times before.

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All you need is one person with a low chance of folding to make this a huge longshot.


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This is what made it a strong move because I thought there was no person with a low chance of folding in THIS hand.

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You sound like the guy who cold-calls a 3-bet with pocket 2s against your aces, calls all the way on a AKQ flop, catches running twos and thinks he played the hand well. You hit a huge longshot, but that doesn't make it correct.


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This is nothing like the hand I played. I was not playing the cards, I was not oblivious to being beat here and calling down anyway. I was not the one CALLING with no hand or a beat hand, I was RAISING to get those whom had no hands but better hands than mine out. And a huge key to that is my position (SB) and this exact board. If the board were any different, in any number of ways, I would have almost certainly folded without a second thought. But this board and my position lended itself specifically to making this move based on all the conditions I've described in my original posts.

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I'm all for trying to steal a huge pot, but at least have some outs and a smaller nubmer of players.


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Again, I wasn't concerned with outs or my hand, I wasn't playing my hand at all on the turn. The daunting factor is indeed the number of players, but as I mentioned in my other post how often are you going to have a huge pot SHed that you can take a shot at like this and where all the players are completely disinterested in the pot or their hands? The only thing that made this pot big is because just about every player at the table was making "sure why not" calls looking to hit an out on the next street. SHed (less players) in a pot and it only gets that big when at least one or several players have a made hand or a very, very strong draw. I was confident no one had a great made hand and my only concern was the turned draw.

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Hope to see you in AC this weekend.

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If it rains, I'll be at the Taj early Saturday morning (late Friday night) and plan on playing the 11AM tourney with Mike. We *might* swing over the Borgata, we'll see! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
If I don't see you, good luck...hope you land a hot deck! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]