AA River Decision against TAG

[_Kevin_]

Villian is a TAG (15% VP$IP, 6% PFR, 2.25 post flop aggression over 400 hands). I've put him on a big pocket pair. Is my flop and turn play OK or should I have slowed down at some point? I've ruled out J's since he slowed down. I'm thinking K's or Q's after the turn play. A's seem extermely unlikely but possible and T's seem even less likely. I believe he would call down with KK or AA and go for a check raise with QQ ot TT. I really only see 2 options based on my reads: 1) Take a free showdown, 2) Bet/Fold to a reraise. Am I wrong to think bet/call is not an option? I suppose based on the likelyhood of hands bet/fold is the best option. Is my thinking way off here?


Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

River: (16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero???

[Redeye]

Bet. He doesn't have jacks, he either has kings or queens, with the Q out its probably slightly more likely he has kings. Unfortunately I wouldn't be able to fold to a raise here and if you get c/r'ed he's showing you QQ.

Edit: All that being said, I'm wondering how profitable a bet can be here against a good player, its gotta be slim if you can fold to a c/r and may not be profitable if you can't fold to the c/r.

[PhatPots]

I would probably take a free showdown. Looks like KK or QQ to me. I think you should show it down, the only possible hand that you really can beat that he might have is KK. He most likely to have TT or QQ in this situation IMO.

Cheers,
Pots

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. He doesn't have jacks, he either has kings or queens, with the Q out its probably slightly more likely he has kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

6 ways to have Kings, 3 ways to have Queens.

You'll pay 2 when he has Queens, and you'll get 1 when he has Kings.

So if the only hands he can have are Kings or Queens, it really doesn't matter if you bet or check. However, considering there are some other hands he could have (JJ, TT, 99), you should probably just check. None of these "other" hands are very likely, but even if he has them 1% of the time, it turns a river bet into the red.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. He doesn't have jacks, he either has kings or queens, with the Q out its probably slightly more likely he has kings.

[/ QUOTE ]

6 ways to have Kings, 3 ways to have Queens.

You'll pay 2 when he has Queens, and you'll get 1 when he has Kings.

So if the only hands he can have are Kings or Queens, it really doesn't matter if you bet or check. However, considering there are some other hands he could have (JJ, TT, 99), you should probably just check. None of these "other" hands are very likely, but even if he has them 1% of the time, it turns a river bet into the red.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty damned sure he doesn't have JJ, TT, or 99.

Since you have to call a raise, you have to be good here 66% of the time. With the weighed hands being KK (6) and QQ (3), I think that's exactly what you need: a ratio of 2:1 that he'll call with rather than raise. There's even a small/slim possibility that he doesn't raise QQ on the river, but I doubt it.

Rob

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
6 ways to have Kings, 3 ways to have Queens.

You'll pay 2 when he has Queens, and you'll get 1 when he has Kings.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, which would be about a break even bet, assuming he doesn't have something else. But If your read was strong enough that this guy was solid, folding to a c/r might show a profit.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty damned sure he doesn't have JJ, TT, or 99.

Since you have to call a raise, you have to be good here 66% of the time. With the weighed hands being KK (6) and QQ (3), I think that's exactly what you need: a ratio of 2:1 that he'll call with rather than raise. There's even a small/slim possibility that he doesn't raise QQ on the river, but I doubt it.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're breaking even with a bet when the only range of hands he has is KK and QQ, why bet if there's even a 0.0001% chance that he's got one of the other hands beating you?

Are there any hands he has other than these big PP's that we're beating?

And there's another mistake we're making: Assuming villian will call here with KK. There are NO hands he's beating here with it, and considering he's a TAG, there's a chance he'll fold it. Add that to the mix, and it's a definite check through.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Are there any hands he has other than these big PP's that we're beating?

[/ QUOTE ]
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
But If your read was strong enough that this guy was solid, folding to a c/r might show a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I edited this in after I posted, so you may not have seen it:

[ QUOTE ]
And there's another mistake we're making: Assuming villian will call here with KK. There are NO hands he's beating here with it, and considering he's a TAG, there's a chance he'll fold it. Add that to the mix, and it's a definite check through.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if we can trust our reads enough to fold to a check/raise, we bet. Otherwise check through.