AA in MP

[btspider]

oh right, it is closer. obviously its -EV for the button, but perhaps not enough to show a noticeable profit once discounting the bet for those times you lose to Tx. your analysis also neglects to account for that.

too much thinking about one hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I call, button called - 13.5 BB. i'll win 90.5% of the time
my EV = 12.12

If i raise and button folded, - 14.5 BB. i'll win 95.5% of the time and my EV is 12.95 like in my earlier post.

[/ QUOTE ]

we put an extra bet into the pot when we raise.. so i think the EV is 11.95 in the raise case.

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
we put an extra bet into the pot when we raise.. so i think the EV is 11.95 in the raise case.

[/ QUOTE ]


nope. i accounted for the extra bet from the raise.

work it out for yourself. i think i might have punched it into the calculator wrong and you probably make more with the raise approach than i calculated.

i like how i played it, except for the river call. this is how i'm going to play it from now on.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
nope. i accounted for the extra bet from the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know, and that's where your EV calcs are wrong. you cannot count your extra bet as winnings. according to your calcs (adjusting for the extra bet), its better to call the turn if you are up against 9x and 77. the 5%-ish change in pot equity is not worth the extra 8%-ish pot sized bet we are putting in. against a gutshot, the 8%-ish pot sized bet buys us 10%-ish more equity in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
i like how i played it, except for the river call. this is how i'm going to play it from now on.

[/ QUOTE ]

then you will be giving up 2 outs on the river when he 3-bets and sometimes folding the best hand on the river. shillx said to fold the river, but he hated that the turn raise put you in that situation in the first place.

[DeathDonkey]

This is weak Shill, I'm surprised. Am I the only one that wants to raise the river? This stop n go crap may be a Ten, but I'd expect to see a 9 or a pocket pair very frequently and I'd expect to get paid off every time at Party 0.50/1. The read was he will stop n go with a piece of the board, well that's what he did here. This seems like that player that's so scared you will get a free card with AK that he keeps stop n going with his one pair the whole way. Fold the river?! pfft. I'm raising baby.

-DeathDonkey

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
i know, and that's where your EV calcs are wrong. you cannot count your extra bet as winnings. according to your calcs (adjusting for the extra bet), its better to call the turn if you are up against 9x and 77. the 5%-ish change in pot equity is not worth the extra 8%-ish pot sized bet we are putting in. against a gutshot, the 8%-ish pot sized bet buys us 10%-ish more equity in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

first, he could have 77, a gutshot or a osed. the equity i gain is not fixed. regardless:

ok. this is something i'm going to ask you to explain in detail. i think i might be doing something terribley wrong and it's costing me.

the way i calculated it was [amount of money i win * probability of winning] - [amount of money i lose * probabilty of losing]

1)the pot is 11.5. so when i call and the button calls, i put in 1 bet and the pot is 13.5 and i calculate the ev as:

[13.5 * .905] - [1 * .095]

2)the pot is 11.5. so when i raise, the button folds and SB calls, i put in 2 bets and the pot is 14.5 and i calculate the ev as:

[14.5 * .955] - [2 * .045]

you are saying this is wrong. please show me where i'm wrong cause i'd like to get this down once and for all.

if you mean that i should calculate it as follows:

1)[12.5 * .905] - [1 * .095]
2)[12.5 * .955] - [2 * .045]

then the 2nd method still has a higher EV.

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
if you mean that i should calculate it as follows:

1)[12.5 * .905] - [1 * .095]
2)[12.5 * .955] - [2 * .045]

then the 2nd method still has a higher EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

not exactly that way, but that is representative of the results. and yeah, i was wrong, its better to raise against 98 and 77. i didn't double check your original math and thought that 95% of your extra bet was being counted as profit. i need to work on theory more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

this is just one piece of the puzzle tho. the button is incorrect to call one bet for 77. if he's loose enough to call with that, he may call one bet drawing dead with two overcards. the SB is incorrect to call your raise and may fold. you may be behind some % of the time, etc etc. it is pretty close all around. with the calldown line, you avoid making a disastrous fold with the best hand and you always get to see the river for your 2-outer if behind.

i'll stand by this statement in one of my earliest posts:
one line isn't clearly better here. its really opponent dependent. my main concern is that i don't want to have to call down if I'm 3-bet on the turn, but I'm rarely confident enough in a read that I wouldn't want to show this hand down.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[btspider]

this is how i double-checked, but i pretty much never break this stuff out. gotta work on it obviously [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

100 BB bankroll
bet-call-call = 13.5 BB pot
.905 equity = 12.22 EV
12.22 + 99 = 111.12 expected bankroll

100 BB bankroll
bet-raise-fold-call = 14.5 BB pot
.955 equity = 13.85 EV
13.85 + 98 = 111.85 expected bankroll

100 BB bankroll
bet-raise-fold-fold = 13.5 BB pot
1.0 equity = 13.5 BB
13.5 + 98 = 111.5 expected bankroll

[ccwhoelse?]

alright man. you are right about it being a close line.

i'd like this thread to die now. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]