AA in MP

[ccwhoelse?]

i'm going to assume that button has a gutshot with Ks and Qd.
i'll assume SB has 9s and 8s, although he could also have a T.

1)if i call the turn and the button calls there is 13.5 BB in the pot.
i'll win 13.5BB 85.7% of the time and lose 1 BB 14.3% of the time
EV = 11.43

2)if i raise the turn and the button folds there is 14.5 BB in the pot.
i'll win 14.5 BB 95.5% of the time and lose 2 BB 4.5% of the time
EV = 12.95

obviously this is a simplified analysis. also, if button has QJ he will win about 50% more often that if he had KQ.

this is what i'd like:

raise on the turn: force button to fold and i'll fold if i get 3-bet on the turn or bet into by SB on the river.

------------------------------------------------

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ah 36 85.71 6 14.29 0 0.00 0.857
9s 8s 2 4.76 40 95.24 0 0.00 0.048
Ks Qd 4 9.52 38 90.48 0 0.00 0.095


cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ah 42 95.45 2 4.55 0 0.00 0.955
9s 8s 2 4.55 42 95.45 0 0.00 0.045

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
if he 3-bets the turn or bets into me on the river, i can assume he has hand #3 - he probably has me beat and i can fold.

You called the river...

This is why I don't understand the turn raise. You said that the villian is a frequent bluffer. Agasint these types of players, you should induce them to bluff more. By raising the turn, you are in effect stopping a river bluff. This is counter-productive against the player you describe. Call the turn. Let him bluff again on the river and throw his money away.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

this is where i am being misquoted. i never said he is a bluffer. i only mentioned that he bet with middle pair in a previous hand. btspider introduced that possibility

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm going to assume that button has a gutshot with Ks and Qd.

[/ QUOTE ]

again, that's the ONE hand you wouldn't want the button to hold. for that analysis to be correct, button would have to hold a gutshot 100% of the time.

i can't keep arguing this hand.

[Shillx]

If you are happy with the way you played it, that is all that matters. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] My head is about to explode..I need some results here... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
again, that's the ONE hand you wouldn't want the button to hold. for that analysis to be correct, button would have to hold a gutshot 100% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

no.

he can have a pair of 3s, a pair of 9s, a pocket pair, QJ (OESD), KQ (gutshot), KJ (gutshot) and possibly a few others.

ALL of these can improve to beat me. he has to have SOME kind of hand, otherwise he would have folded on my flop raise.

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are happy with the way you played it, that is all that matters. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] My head is about to explode..I need some results here... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

hahaha. Button had JTo. I agree with you about folding on the river, that is what i'll do in the future in this situation. I don't want to argue anymore. Everyone can be right. It's that close.
take it easy guys, sorry for the stress - [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[btspider]

yes, as i've said, only a gutshot and OESD have proper odds to call. an OESD has proper odds even if you raise.. so only a gutshot can be protected from by raising the turn.

you make money if a 2 outer calls the turn.. at the expense of losing 1 in 22 pots, but making 21 bets the times he doesn't pull through.

the extreme example is if you have AA on an AAKx board where your opponet has JT of the same suit as the board's AK. he has one out to beat you. he *could* beat you on the river, but you want him to call. winning outright isn't always the most profitable.

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
you make money if a 2 outer calls the turn.. at the expense of losing 1 in 22 pots, but making 21 bets the times he doesn't pull through.


[/ QUOTE ]

not true.

if the button had pocket 7s for example:

I call, button called - 13.5 BB. i'll win 90.5% of the time
my EV = 12.12

If i raise and button folded, - 14.5 BB. i'll win 95.5% of the time and my EV is 12.95 like in my earlier post.

-------------------------------------------------------

if i raise and button calls my raise, i'll win more money. all assuming that SB is behind.

if SB has a T, it doesn't really matter and I just want to know if i should fold (i.e. he 3-bets or bets into me on the river)

---------------------------------------

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Ah 38 90.48 4 9.52 0 0.00 0.905
9s 8s 2 4.76 40 95.24 0 0.00 0.048
7s 7d 2 4.76 40 95.24 0 0.00 0.048

[Shillx]

Can you see my avatar???

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you see my avatar???

[/ QUOTE ]

yea. i coach a football player who looks like the gerber baby.