($16) AA and turn decision

[11t]

No reads.

Blinds are 15/30

Relevant Stacks:

Villain in UTG+1 (1570)
Hero in MP (1470)

Hero has: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG folds, Villain limps, Hero raises 5xbb to 150, folds to Villain who calls.

Flop is: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot is (345)

Villain checks, Hero bets 300, Villain quickly calls

Turn is: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], pot is 945

Villain leads out for 250, Hero...

Okay, so I had no clue what to do here. This bet seems to be enticing me to push over the top. If villain open limped in EP with 99/TT/JJ then I am only beating JJ. Presumably villain is raising preflop with QQ/KK/AA and if not they are limp raising. If villain open limped with some sort of suited broadway cards (KJs, QJs, KQs) than they too hit on the turn. It seems like we are both destined to become pot committed and one of us is drawing nearly dead and there is a chance it is myself.

Suggestions?

Interesting hand, i'm gonna have a think about it

[11t]

I'm bumping this, does everybody just push the turn?

[Marc H]

I think you're in serious trouble (Villain very possibly has a set or a flush), and if I'm in your shoes and can keep from falling in love with my aces, I fold. You still have ~1000 chips if you do.

[Burno]

Tough spot. A read would be really helpful. No PT numbers? No time to check the instant HH to see where he got those 70 chips, how many pots he's won, etc?

His turn bet could also be an attempt to price himself in with a T and big spade, out of fear of facing a big turn bet. It's really really unlikely he flopped a house, most players at the 16's aren't leading with a turned boat.

I don't believe he's trying to entice you either, he could easily c/r the turn and most likely have you committed if he hit a big hand. Small flush is all I'm worried about and that doesn't make much sense considering the preflop call. I think I'm sticking it all in here. Hand ranges are much wider the first two levels in these turbos.

What if you held the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[11t]

If I head the As I would push here 100% of the time versus random low limit players.

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]
If I head the As I would push here 100% of the time versus random low limit players.

[/ QUOTE ]

That surprises me, I would just call with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] What free cards are we worried about? As you mentioned, one of you is probably drawing to two outs. If you push he might find a fold. And if you just call he'll often shove the river whether he has you beat or not. You're paying the flush either way, but gaining when he pushes the river as a bluff or feels stuck enough to call off the rest.

I think this more than offsets the value from the times when he would call the turn push with a hand that he'd check/fold on the river if you just called the turn.

The previous sentence is awfully clumsy, I hope you can decipher what I'm trying to say.