Turned Trips but the Other Guy Keeps Betting

[Harv72b]

Meh, the thread is dead I guess. I need to work on my definition of "interesting" hands.

I did raise the river, and he called the raise and showed KJ. MHIG.

Keeping in mind that I didn't bother to note sample size and therefore thought my read was stronger than it actually was, I had planned on capping if he 3-bet. I was that sure.

His 16/9 numbers, combined with the fact that the table as a whole was playing tight/aggressive (SB being the sole exception and the reason the table was still going), I felt that I could rule out him holding a 6; he wouldn't have limped A6s second in from MP2. He also wouldn't have limped behind with JJ or KK; them's raising hands, and barring a misclick the fact that he had no notes indicated to me that he wasn't likely to be trying sometihng tricky like limping behind & hoping to reraise. So, as the first couple people in this thread said, he basically had to have KJ, or maybe some superdraw like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (although that probably doesn't call a river raise).

I just posted this one because I thought it made for a good (if not easy) example of online hand-reading. And yeah, I was a little proud of myself for nailing it in real time. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[istewart]

I would fold the flop here. I hear your argument, but you're nowhere near closing the action and sixes and fives will be a costly second-best hand frequently on this type of board, I would imagine.

[QTip]

Harv:

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone limp with A6 there. The reason I doubted he had it was most wouldn't bet the flop with that unless they also had some sort of draw with it. You had the 6d, so, it's not A6s diamonds, and it's not A6s spades since that's on the board as well. There are 2 things going on here:

1. Our read on his PF play. Of course, cards are hidden, but misclicks can happen, tilt, FPS or whatever.

2. Our read on his postflop play. As I said, the six hitting is painfully obvious (these cards and action are not hidden), and he doesn't care.

So, between the two, the postflop play is a more sure thing imo.

Amazing how he overplayed that.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
I would fold the flop here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seconded. The five outs are if you're really lucky (do you want to see the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] come up?), and then there's redraws, etc. If you make flop peels like this routinely, it could be a leak.

[Harv72b]

I'm going to have to disagree on the flop call. While it's certainly possible that someone has the flush draw, it's hardly a given. And of course it's also possible (as was the case this time) that someone else flopped two pair, but that's also not always going to be the case. When all of my outs are live that gives me ~6.5, including the backdoor flush draw. Obviously you have to discount, but even with 5 outs this becomes a reasonable flop call.

As far as what I do if the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turns (or any other 5), I raise once and exactly once. If MP2 3-bets or a flop caller 3-bets behind me, I act accordingly...in this case, probably calling for 1 more and folding the river UI multiway, calling 1 on the river HU, or folding if it's 3-bet & capped after my raise.

As far as what I do on the turn, if any card comes other than a 5, 6, or diamond, I fold for one bet.

So, really, the absolute worst case scenario has me putting in 4.5 BBs and losing to MP2's KJ, when I turn a 5 and call down in a HU pot. Most of the time, I'm losing 1 SB by calling on the flop and then folding when the turn doesn't improve me. A few more times I turn a diamond and call 1 more on the turn, fold the river UI.

As for the best case...well, I think we pretty much saw it here, although it would've been nice if UTG+1 had called on the turn (he thought about it for around 15 seconds before folding to my first raise). Will I end up turning two pair or trips and losing to a river redraw? Yeah, from time to time. Every so often I'll turn a 5 or 6 and then catch the 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the river, winning several bets from a flush.

I dunno, someone else can do the math if they like, but I don't think peeling on the flop here is -EV, assuming I play it properly on later streets.

[chief444]

Harv,

Flop call seem really really iffy considering sometimes you'll catch two pair and get rivered...or even are against a bigger hand now.

I don't see how you can do anything but call the river and hope to see KJ.

Chief