($16) Medium pairs and the early game

[11t]

So I have a lot of confidence in my post flop skills. 2nd hand, no reads. Is this spewing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO (t1500)
Button (t1490)
SB (t3070)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1440)
MP1 (t1500)
Hero (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t20, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t40</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls t30, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, Hero calls t20.

Flop: (t180) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, CO calls t100, SB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (t380) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, CO calls t200.

River: (t780) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets t300</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1080

[splashpot]

When CO calls on the flop, I'm 90% certain he has overcards. A higher pair or even the flush draw would most likely raise. Keeing that in mind, I'd put in real bet on the turn. Close to pot size. The river I check/call provided his bet isn't huge.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
When CO calls on the flop, I'm 90% certain he has overcards. A higher pair or even the flush draw would most likely raise. Keeing that in mind, I'd put in real bet on the turn. Close to pot size. The river I check/call provided his bet isn't huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I don't think I've ever been 90% sure of a read at the low buyins. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Anyway, I'd also bet closer to the pot on the flop. The turn is ugly, I guess it's worth taking a shot, though. I'm done on the river. So I'm pretty close to OPs line.

[splashpot]

Ok fine, maybe 90% was an exaggeration.

[zipppy]

Yes, people at lower buyins are bad, and yes, you can never predict what the guy next to you is going to be like when you start an SNG.

HOWEVER, one reason bad players are so bad is that they are so consistant in their betting habits. So while you may not know what the guy to your left is like at the beginning of an SNG, towards the end you SHOULD have strong reads on them, and stronger, IMO, than at higher levels, as their play is usually both horrible and consistant.

lower level players being unpredictable is a myth IMO. while play varies strong from player to player, each player doesn't vary much at all.

&gt;&gt;&gt;ZIPPPY

edit: i know that in this hand there were no reads, but i just hear over and over how unpredictable lower buy-in players are, and that's wrong. hope I didn't make you feel like I was attacking you, pineapple. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, people at lower buyins are bad, and yes, you can never predict what the guy next to you is going to be like when you start an SNG.

HOWEVER, one reason bad players are so bad is that they are so consistant in their betting habits. So while you may not know what the guy to your left is like at the beginning of an SNG, towards the end you SHOULD have strong reads on them, and stronger, IMO, than at higher levels, as their play is usually both horrible and consistant.

lower level players being unpredictable is a myth IMO. while play varies strong from player to player, each player doesn't vary much at all.

&gt;&gt;&gt;ZIPPPY

edit: i know that in this hand there were no reads, but i just hear over and over how unpredictable lower buy-in players are, and that's wrong. hope I didn't make you feel like I was attacking you, pineapple. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, I didn't even know it was directed at me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

The only predictability I've seen is that they all overvalue their hands. So I guess you're ahead of me in the read department [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] .