TPTK, can you find a fold?

[Pablo]

It would be painful, but I think I'd fold that turn. Given that villain capped the flop, I don't think TPTK is good here very often.

[imported_leader]

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It would be painful, but I think I'd fold that turn. Given that villain capped the flop, I don't think TPTK is good here very often.

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Go play 6-max for an hour. Believe me. It's good a lot.

[milesdyson]

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It would be painful, but I think I'd fold that turn. Given that villain capped the flop, I don't think TPTK is good here very often.

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Go play 6-max for an hour. Believe me. It's good a lot.

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i'm not disagreeing with calling down here, but saying it's "good a lot" is an overstatement. calling down here has to be a narrowly +EV predicament.

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You are getting a good price to calldown here. If you knew that he could only have a better hand, you would fold the turn. If AK is possible then your equity is at about 23% and you need ~13% to call her down (slightly more actually b/c the other dude has some of your equity). The problem as I see it is that AK isn't always going to be played this way by him. So if he sometimes caps it and sometimes just calls prelfop, you are in a very tough spot. I also think that KQ can be discounted quite heavily here. I would venture to guess that your equity is somewere in the 15-20% range but again that is just a guess. That would make a calldown thin, but probably correct.

The other interesting thing here is the flop play. It might look natural to 3-bet, but is a 3-bet really doing anything for us? If the flop bettor has a draw, he isn't going to fold for two more and he probably makes $$$ on all bets that go in on the flop. Hell he isn't going to fold anything that hurts you on this flop and the fact that he bet into both of you leads me to believe that he has something good. I would consider coldcalling and then raising the turn. We get better value that way when he is drawing, and it gives us a chance to throw the hand away if it comes bet and raised on 4th. What it also does is give us some more information. If he 3-bets after we coldcall, there is a better chance that he has a set or 2-pair or whatever. If he just calls, we can be fairly confident that a turn raise (on a brick) will put lots of $$$ in our pocket.

Brad

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This is awesome advice as usual Brad. Questions.

If Hero cold calls the flop and it goes 3bet, cap... what's our action? We call the flop getting 8:1.

If it then goes bet, raise on the turn, we can let it go.

But if it goes check, bet...do you call, raise or fold?

We're getting 11:1 on the turn call but do we fold the river UI?

If we raise, we can fold the river UI pretty safely (when 3bet) but it cost more than getting to showdown.

What if both call a turn raise but one of them donks the river?

Should we just fold the turn UI, due to reverse implied?

I'm starting to think call, call, call (fold if it's two on the big streets) is the best play.

[Pablo]

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It would be painful, but I think I'd fold that turn. Given that villain capped the flop, I don't think TPTK is good here very often.

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Go play 6-max for an hour. Believe me. It's good a lot.

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You probably have a point. I play 9/10 seat tables only, so that's what I'm basing my advice on.

[Shillx]

We are raising the turn if we flat call the flop and the OG bettor just calls. Look at the sequence of events....

Guy donks the flop. This could be a pair, a draw, a set...who knows. The next guy should raise any pair here since we might fold a hand like QQ or AQ. If he raises AJ and gets us to fold QQ, he is a genius for those times he gets to play HU against a donked draw. Same can be said when he raises a draw and gets us to fold a better hand. So his flop raise really doesn't mean much (it should be any pair or draw in this big pot). We then raise the turn because AK has a huge edge over his range and we need to get that value from 2 hands that are drawing to 20% of the pot or less (and will not fold).

Just to clarify...we are not folding AQ on this flop, but he doesn't know that. I would 3-bet everytime with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and still 3-bet without one. QQ is much more questionable. -- Edited to say that we aren't just 3-betting the flop with weaker hands like AQ. We are also doing it with sets so it isn't like we are praying for a free card when we 3-bet here. It is just that hands like AK are best coldcalled and mosnters/okay hands should be jammed. We would also 3-bet a flush draw here.

It is when he caps that we have a problem. We might fold something that he wants when he raises, but the cap isn't going to fold out jack. It is a pure value play and we need to treat it as such. Likewise we are in a very tough spot should we coldcall and see it get 3-bet and capped behind us. I don't think that it will happen too often when the donker doesn't have a big hand though maybe I should consider it. Folding in that spot could very well be the best play since most LL players don't bet-3bet flops with draws.

A river donk is interesting because it depends what we are getting donked on. We fold if it is a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for example and it is bet and called to us. Getting donked on a blank would be very odd indeed (and would probably be the kiss of death) but there are other reaons to call besides value. We can learn a lot about him and bad players in general by seeing what he has.

Brad

[Agthorr]

Draws want to see the next card as cheaply as possible, unless their odds are very good and there's enough callers for a value-bet. If he's got a OESD, it's definitely -EV with only two callers. With a flush draw, it's barely +EV with two callers, but by making it two-bets to Hero he's making it more likely that Hero will fold, making it a -EV play. If UTG has a flush draw and Hero has a moderately strong hand, UTG is still better off calling because he can then reraise if Hero raises with very little risk of anyone folding (since it'll be one-bet to everyone at each step).

If he had some fold equity, it'd be a good play as a semi-bluff, but he doesn't have any fold equity unless he can beat BB or thinks he can get BB to fold (unlikely).

Of course, there is some chance UTG has only a draw, is making a -EV play, and Hero is ahead of BB. If that's the case more than one-third of the time, then re-raising is correct. There aren't that many combinations of cards that raise (but don't cap) from UTG and will yield a flush draw, and we aren't certain UTG would play the draw this way. It's very likely he'd play JJ this way, though, and there are 3 combinations of JJ available. If you still think there's a strong chance he'd raise with a draw, then I guess this is a marginally +EV play. It's definitely a +variance play. :-)

The pot is already big, we're not likely to get anyone to fold, and there's a decent chance we're not ahead, so my inclination would be to just call down.

[imported_leader]

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It would be painful, but I think I'd fold that turn. Given that villain capped the flop, I don't think TPTK is good here very often.

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Go play 6-max for an hour. Believe me. It's good a lot.

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i'm not disagreeing with calling down here, but saying it's "good a lot" is an overstatement. calling down here has to be a narrowly +EV predicament.

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I grant you that's probably true at UB .25/.50. You'll excuse me if I'm a little jaded after 10K hands of clearing bonuses at PokerRoom 3/6 5-max.

Isnt this one of the situtations where Ed Miller talks about winning big pots? Dont think I'm able to fold TPTK on a .25/.5 table 6handed here, especially without any reads.

[PoBoy321]

Villain shows KJ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and MHING.