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  #31  
Old 11-24-2005, 11:18 PM
MicroBob MicroBob is offline
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Location: memphis
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Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

and on the other side: many players who drop $100 to start do not re-deposit.

so if you're going to have variance where you're +600 and then -600 you will be able to do that.
but if you're variance on a given site was potentially going to be -600 and THEN +600 then there is a chance you might not stick around long enough to realize the 'come-back'.


in other words: every losing player is going to have win streaks.

those who have the win streaks at the start are going to keep playing obviously and think they are a good player. they will keep playing until they lose their money (which is inevitable if they are playing an inferior game).
then they think something happened from the site's end. well...they ran well to start...and then stopped catching good cards. no biggie.


those who lose when they start are less likely to redeposit...and are less likely to talk about it.
but those who do redeposit will eventually hit a winning streak. at that point they will think they have finally figured it out and know how to play better (even if it's only after 300 hands) then they'll go back to losing again...but now they'll KNOW that it was because the site threw the switch on them and MADE them lose. because their previous win-streak has now convinced them that they are a winning player.


I suspect 80-90% of poker-players would say they are at least 'break-even to winning' players...even though this is obviously impossible.
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  #32  
Old 11-26-2005, 12:29 PM
BruinEric BruinEric is offline
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Location: Southern California
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Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

[ QUOTE ]

On Party Poker, I track sessions also by what character I had at which table

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I should turn those things back on (using chiplitre table mod)...

...time to do a study in correlation between Party Cartoon Icon and successful bluffs. In NL, are players more likely to fold heads-up facing your continuation bet with AK that missed the flop if you are "Pink Shirt Guy" or "Cowboy Hat Guy?"

The time is NOW for this study. You won't have to worry about all those PokerNow, Empire, Multipoker, etc. icons messing up the study.
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  #33  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:16 PM
BassMasterK BassMasterK is offline
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Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

These guys are pulling in money hand over fist from the rakes. They don't care WHO pays the rake. Think about it this way, for them to 'juice' some cards to player A, it means players B,D,E,F,G,H,I,J and K are getting screwed by the 'juice'. Does it make sense to turn off 9 players (who if they aren't in the 'lucky club' will go broke and quit)to your site in order to make one a winner? No. I've heard people say 'well, they switch it around so that some people win sometimes to keep them around, and then lose later on'. wtf? That's called poker. Sometimes people win, sometimes they lose. No big conspiracy here.

If even ONE of the big guys got caught, the financial impact for them would be catastrophic. Seeing as how they are pulling in huge money currently, there would be NO reason to risk playing some 'bait and switch' card game and EVERY reason to deal fair games.

Yes wierd stuff happens. Once at a B&M I saw a guy in seat 10 lose a big hand with QQ against a straight. Next hand he pulls in a small win with QQ again. We comment on the slim chances of hitting QQ's twice in a row and he comments he isn't going to play QQ's for the rest of the day. Next hand, you guessed it. He flips over QQ and lost a huge pot to a flush on the river. QQ's three times in a row. Even the dealer couldn't believe it. The game wasn't fixed, sometimes statistically small things happen. Sometimes you are there to witness them. Sometimes your brain then thinks it is more common than it is. Sometimes your brain is wrong.
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  #34  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:31 PM
BarronVangorToth BarronVangorToth is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

On Party Poker, I track sessions also by what character I had at which table

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I should turn those things back on (using chiplitre table mod)...

...time to do a study in correlation between Party Cartoon Icon and successful bluffs. In NL, are players more likely to fold heads-up facing your continuation bet with AK that missed the flop if you are "Pink Shirt Guy" or "Cowboy Hat Guy?"

The time is NOW for this study. You won't have to worry about all those PokerNow, Empire, Multipoker, etc. icons messing up the study.

[/ QUOTE ]



I realize you read what I wrote correctly, but I want people to be 100% certain that I do not believe the character icon has any bearing whatsoever - HOWEVER, when it comes to figuring out all sorts of idiotic things, I find this type of nonsense interesting to track.

Anyone else who has, feel free to PM me with your results (or it can be a seperate thread) but absolutely no one should take it as anything other than math nerds being, well, math nerds. Or just nerds. Or just idiots.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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  #35  
Old 11-26-2005, 02:33 PM
BarronVangorToth BarronVangorToth is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

[ QUOTE ]

but who's to say they can't juice the card flow a little bit for their own house players.

[/ QUOTE ]


They obviously could. But is it worth the potential downfall if ever found out? One of these players could blackmail Party Poker for millions ... so is that worth a few grand or whatever?

But, sure, it's possible. But I don't think probable. Plus, even if it were true, and you can't figure it out, why bother...? Certainly it's not as relevant as if you win more if you're the guy in the suit vs. that awful shirted fella.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
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  #36  
Old 11-26-2005, 06:28 PM
wickedgoodtrader wickedgoodtrader is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 72
Default Re: People who think online is rigged...

I have been a long term winner to online poker.. all on Party. I however have seen some weird things in those times. One is I always seem to get a run of real [censored] cards just after cashing out. I also saw a show about a guy who repaired slot machines and he said it's impossible to program a computer to be truly random. He was able to tell when certain slots would hit or what numbers would pop up on the keno. He got caught when he had his buddy go in and win the keno. Therefore I don't necessairly think online dealing is rigged in any manner, but there may be flaws in it. Nothing is random.. shuffling in real life isn't even random.. thats why some people can shuffle track.
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