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  #21  
Old 11-23-2005, 04:46 PM
bizaff bizaff is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
78 is the only holding I'm afraid of here.

[/ QUOTE ]
That was my number one fear.

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That makes sense that should be your number one fear - that's one of the the most likely hands that beat you here. The key idea is that it is NOT his most likely hand.

He checked out of the big blind - he could have, quite literally, any two. The ONLY hands that beat you are 77 (1), 88 (3), 87 (6), 73 (6), and 72 (6). The other hands he could have that he'd think are good include 99 (6), TT (6), JJ (6), QQ (6), KK (6), AA (6), x8 (~100), x7 (~60), 22 (3), and maybe any other pair (18). These severely outnumber the ones that have you beat. Even if you exclude some of the big pairs and the naked 8s, his losing range greatly exceeds his winning range.

You may have called and lost this hand, but at the 25's, a lot of people will think they're better more than they should. Your turn bet was weak, possibly encouraging his big bet on the end. Unless you have a strong read that this guy will fold the weaker holdings, you may want to take advantage of this.
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  #22  
Old 11-23-2005, 04:54 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

Fine. But if his river bet is air, he's not calling a raise anyway, is he? Yes, your counting is correct...there are a lot more hands that beat me than don't beat me. No, I don't think A-A is even possible. The only worse hands that call a raise include a 7 or maybe a very passively played 9-9 that feels pot committed.
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  #23  
Old 11-23-2005, 04:55 PM
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

If he were deeper, I think you can make a stronger argument for just calling. Personally, I don't mind just calling here, but that's just me. Given his stack size and the donkishness of 25NL, you will certainly get called by a naked 7 here, which makes pushing a very acceptable alternative. I could go either way here. Flip a coin. If villain was a bit deeper, I think I would lean to just calling.
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  #24  
Old 11-23-2005, 05:11 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

This I agree with completely. I am 97% convinced he holds something he's quite fond of. Because he's relatively shallow, I considered just pushing and letting the chips fall where they may. It's probably the longest I've ever deliberated about my play online (especially micro limits).
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  #25  
Old 11-23-2005, 05:17 PM
bizaff bizaff is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

[ QUOTE ]
Fine. But if his river bet is air, he's not calling a raise anyway, is he?

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely correct, and a strong idea. You don't want to raise when only better hands will call you. In this particular case, if a naked 7 will call you, and the chances of a naked 7 outweigh the odds you're laying, then by all means raise.

[ QUOTE ]
The only worse hands that call a raise include a 7 or maybe a very passively played 9-9 that feels pot committed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Taking your example, the number of hands you beat is 66, the number that beat you is 22. You are WAY ahead of this range.

Even if you only allow for A7, K7, 99, and 22, you should call.
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  #26  
Old 11-23-2005, 05:26 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you only allow for A7, K7, 99, and 22, you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did, lol.
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  #27  
Old 11-23-2005, 06:08 PM
bizaff bizaff is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

Err, you know what I mean [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Raise him!
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  #28  
Old 11-23-2005, 06:12 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
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Default Re: Another bottom set post

[ QUOTE ]
Err, you know what I mean [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Raise him!

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess to an extent I factored in the fact that he'd be passive the entire time I was at the table, and he hadn't done anything way out of line. I had no previous hands with him after looking through my PT database...mostly because it's been forever since I've played at $25 NL.
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