Johnny Bax plays live too

[MLG]

bax is pretty tight in EP, so while 97 is possible, i think it unlikely and I really really doubt 75.

[MLG]

I think its pretty clear that the preflop raiser has given up on the pot. If he has a hand like two big diamonds on the flop, betting is pretty reasonable as you're basically ahead of any non 7 hand (generally two overs+flush draw). I think checking there is fine, but you will always need to make your hand to win. By betting, you can sometimes take it down on the turn even if you dont improve.

[scott8]

Did Bax explain his thinking on the river call?

He obviously didnt think you had a 7.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you who didn't read the cardplayer update, I bet 2k and bax called after a long think with 76s. I'll go through my decision point by point. I didn't raise the flop, because it lets bax get away from worse hands while making the pot pretty big and making it harder for me to get away from it if the flush draw hits (since i think there are lots of flush draws in his ranger here). When he leads the turn I pretty much eliminate any naked draws but include hands like AJ/KJ/QJ/J10 of diamonds which now are top pair plus flush draws. Also, since it would be hard to put me on a J, and easy to put me on a draw I certainly include 88/99/1010 in his range here, betting because he thinks he has the best hand. Now the river blanks and he checks. Now, here's the thing, there are exactly 3 hands that he can hold with a 7 in them, A7 of spades, 87 of spades, 76 of spades while I think there are a lot of other decent made hands he can hold here. 22 actually, 6 88, 6 99, 6 1010, J10 of diamonds, JQ of diamonds, JK of diamonds, AJ of diamonds. Lets discount that because a lot of the time he will check the turn with those hands, so lets call it 15. Therefore, if he calls more than 1/5 of the time when he's holding those hands its a good bet fore me. I certainly think Bax is good enough to put me on a busted draw and try to snap me off often enough to make the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but would he keep betting on the turn with AJ/KJ/QJ diamonds? I suppose so, but checking seems likely too since he’ll lose less to a 7 and make more from mid-pairs, and won’t be scared of diamonds hitting. By contrast, I think he bets the turn with A7/87/76 100% of the time. I also think he bets TT-88 but I doubt he pays off with those.

So if you ARE CALLED,
18 ways 88-TT are dealt, but maybe you’re called ~20% of the time if you bet

4 ways Jx diamonds are dealt, but maybe they don’t play it that way 50% of the time, and maybe they don’t call the river

4 ways 7x is dealt, and 100% it plays this way
And while its unlikely, maybe he bluff-raises you 5% of the time – its always possible you have a tell, for example, or possible his 76 wants to move you off of a potential 87 or A7.

I dunno, the math seems close but on balance checking might be better. But it could be cause I know the results….

-g

[MLG]

When I called on the turn Bax thought I wasn't drawing as he thought that it was too big a bet for me to call with just a draw given that the board was paired. He' probably right, as I'm most likely only calling with combo hands like 89 of diamonds. On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there. I thought i was making a thing value bet, turns out I was making an inspired bluff that almost worked.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt he think you'd have been more aggressive w/ a better 7? I dont think there are all too many hands you play this way that beat his 67. So i dont see what he's talking about.

[MLG]

I would have played 87/97/107 and maybe 55 exactly the same way. Bigger 7s I probably but not definitely raise somewhere along the way. I'm not betting any non 7 made hands on the river so besides 74s (which is a pretty unlikely hand for me to play even in this kind of pot) what hand does he beat if I'm not bluffing a missed draw.

[archangel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the river he actually thought after the hand that he made a bad call since its really really hard for me to have a worse 7 there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt he think you'd have been more aggressive w/ a better 7? I dont think there are all too many hands you play this way that beat his 67. So i dont see what he's talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how much more aggressively a better 7 would have played the hand, especially at the river. A better 7 would have had to know Bax had a weaker 7 exactly (rather than a non-7 losing hand) in order to have bet more w/o fear of Bax folding a losing hand.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought i was making a thin value bet, turns out I was making an inspired bluff that almost worked.

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, I've been in this situation before. "you got the str8?" Um....No.... "[censored], my trips are no good. Nice hand."

So how do you feel about the VB now? I still think the reasoning is sound, and I bet it too.