82s

[ReadyEddie]

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So, I stand by my statement that you paid enough for that free card, take it.

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yep

[daveymck]

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So, I stand by my statement that you paid enough for that free card, take it.

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If he takes the free card he may well not have done what he has done so far, the guy can fold his WSD figure shows that, you have acted as if you have a big hand this guy may fold the turn.

Be interested in the ops plan if the guy raises the turn or a non diamond comes on the river.

[crunchy1]

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He definately doesn't have the best hand

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I think that this is a gross overstatement in a blind steal/defense situation.

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I think that a TAG WILL drop a weaker king here because you showed him you mean business on the flop.

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I think that there are more better hands that will fold besides a K. I also think that there are worse hands that will also call a turn bet and then check the river UI.

[JinX11]

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EDIT: Are there other metagame considerations that I am missing with your play here?

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None that I was considering at the time. Read my other posts and you'll see that I don't really need to do anything extra to "play myself up" as a LAG! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Ok....just caught the K4o thread.

Crunchy - maybe you've hit that stage in an improving poker player's progression goes from "I've gotta tighten up" to "any two can be profitable". That, or I think maybe you're having some anger issues. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[crunchy1]

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Be interested in the ops plan if the guy raises the turn or a non diamond comes on the river.

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A turn checkraise would be tough. I'm clearly behind at that point as this TAG isn't bluffing here. The tough part is that I've probably got odds to see the river with my flush draw. I don't like it because it was my flop and turn play that bloated the pot to get me the correct odds after a turn c/r but, nonetheless, I'm still there and probably call and hope for a diamond.

On a non-diamond river I want to see showdown. This means either:
- checking behind (he'd not folding a better hand or calling with a busted draw)
- calling a river donk; which I wouldn't be happy about - but probably would do and lose! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[crunchy1]

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Crunchy - maybe you've hit that stage in an improving poker player's progression goes from "I've gotta tighten up" to "any two can be profitable". That, or I think maybe you're having some anger issues. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

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Nope, I've been stuck in the latter stage for some time now - and it IS profitable!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SeaEagle]

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He definately doesn't have the best hand but I still like the turn bet. I think that a TAG WILL drop a weaker king here because you showed him you mean business on the flop.

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A couple of weeks ago, W.D. wrote an interesting post about betting in this situation. At first I was nonplussed by his opinion since I am (or at least was) a "take the free card/check behind w/ outs" guy. Then I sat down and did the math behind betting here.

Hero probably has 14 clean outs and roughly 30% equity. So a bet costs him .4BB in EV if called. In a 5BB pot, villian has to fold a better hand 1 time in 12 in order for hero to make up the lost .4BB. This particular villian is probably folding a K here a lot of the time, since he's a bit weak/tight and is looking at having to pay 2 bets to only win 7.

This analysis doesn't take into account the fact that villain might raise and hero still has to call. But it also doesn't account for the fact that hero is sometimes ahead here and is risking the whole pot to a free river suckout. I'm not sure these two factors offset, but they're close.

I'm still a "take the free card guy", but I've altered my thinking a bit in cases where my opponent is giving me extra fold equity.

[JinX11]

Crunchy - over how many hands is your read? Do you happen to have a good read on his blind defense tendencies?

I am guessing, given his WSD% and his tendency to fold, that he may defend his blinds less than most TAGs. If so, then I am giving him credit for something somewhat reasonable when he calls my PFR. Even after your PFR and an Ace and King fall, he's not afraid to show some aggression on the flop.

Given your opponent, his tendency to make folds, and playing back at you on the flop, I think you're looking at Ax here a decent amount of the time. I don't fold as often as this guy, but there's no way I'm dropping any Ace in this blind-defense situation - I'd just check-call you down.

[brettbrettr]

Me likey. Pre-flop is read-based, and post-flop looks perfect to me. I'm assuming you're taking a free card if the turn doesn't improve you.

[brettbrettr]

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I'm betting the turn for value (and probably taking a free showdown UI).

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I think you're betting to get the other guy to fold. I think you're behind here most of the time, and even with you're boatload of outs HU you're still not the favorite.