Party 33: butchered QQ gets interesting post flop

illegit · #1 10-10-2005, 04:21 PM

11 players left. His oversized PF raise screamed mid-pair or AK to me that he's not to race with if a short stack pushes , so this really should have been a simple PF push, but assume you donkishly misclicked and just called PF. (I'm not so fortunate as to be able to attribute it to a misclick, rather i had an inferior player giving me advice while playing. Awful.)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (5 handed) converter

Hero (t126819)
SB (t82682)
BB (t89556)
UTG (t40998)
MP (t116392)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to t33800, Hero calls t33800, 2 folds.

Flop: (t82600) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t82600) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets t37700, MP is all-in [t82592] , Hero ???????

If I fold I have a short stack but still can possibly recover despite butchering the hand. What hands are you worried about him playing this way?

play2win · #2 10-10-2005, 05:58 PM

I'll give a shot at it:

I wouldn't go so far as to say you butchered this hand. Just for kicks, 11 players left, so I am going to assume there are now big jumps in payouts for every place you move up? Big jump to make it to 9th? I imagine players are playing pretty tight right now? How has MP been playing up to now?

Yes, I probably would have pushed PF but you didn’t, nothing you can do now. The flop doesn’t look good for you with an over out there. I would have thrown out a bet as soon as it was checked to me on the flop, if I was called I would slow down or if I was re-raised I would have mucked it. I am going to make the assumption that everyone is playing stronger hands trying to make the FT. So I would think that I was behind big-time after the play on the turn. Seems to me that this guy has a hand strong enough that he wants you to catch-up some so he can get a bet out of you or make you bluff. He is not afraid to check it down hoping to lure you in.

This flop would look pretty nice to an AK, and great for a KK. I think he saw a rainbow hit with AK and was willing to check it down to induce a bluff out of you then do just what he did and come back over the top. Check raises usually are a sign of big strength and I give them credit. From the point you left it off at I think I would make the fold. But of course it would have been optimal to play it different from the start. You were the leader, you could have put him to a decision PF for all his chips and he might have laid down KQ in hopes to make the FT. Either way I would say that he has it with the AK.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

kuro · #3 10-10-2005, 06:53 PM

Push preflop. After not pushing, I'd just check it down.

After your bet on the turn, you're pot committed so you have to call villain's check-raise. Villain doesn't have to have a king to push here.

carsrcoffins · #4 10-10-2005, 07:14 PM

I am a little confused. Why is his preflop raise oversized? BB 10,000 and he made it 33,800, thats only about 4xbb.

Other than that, you should have made a bet of about half the pot on the flop and then folded to a raise or slowed down.

If your going to check the flop, check the turn and then you can probably call his bet on the river, depending on the size.

illegit · #5 10-10-2005, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am a little confused. Why is his preflop raise oversized? BB 10,000 and he made it 33,800, thats only about 4xbb.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's oversized for this blind level. If you notice a raise to 30K represents more than 1/4 his stack. Standard opening raise here is either a push from a short stack or about 2-2.5x BB.

JustPlayingSmart · #6 10-10-2005, 10:27 PM

I think I would check twice here, then call a river bet or value bet the river. With the way you played it, I'm having a hard time putting him on anything besides a set or nothing. If he had a king, it is a really strange way to play it. I'm kind of a calling station in these spots, but I think I call here. Folding leaves you 5xBB, and not much shot to get the big money.

Obviously you know not pushing preflop was terrible.

illegit · #7 10-10-2005, 10:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would check twice here, then call a river bet or value bet the river. With the way you played it, I'm having a hard time putting him on anything besides a set or nothing. If he had a king, it is a really strange way to play it. I'm kind of a calling station in these spots, but I think I call here. Folding leaves you 5xBB, and not much shot to get the big money.

[/ QUOTE ]
I pretty much agree with this read. With the pot at 80K, I don't see him slowplaying a K TWICE. He may have whiffed a CR on the flop but not the turn also. He'd almost certainly bet. After the turn I decided to value bet my hand (could have wait til the river but I felt 2 checks was already enough info). After the CR I feared 99 and that was about it. He could have correctly read me as not having a K and be trying to move me off my hand as a desparation move or he has 99 (or maybe one of the other baby sets). I think with the pot size though he doesn't have 99 often enough to fold at all.

And yes, don't let a donkey watch you play and affect your thought process. Huge -EV.