Calling down a with a loser...

ckmo · #1 10-09-2005, 11:47 AM

if you know exactly what just beat you...is it even worth it. For example UTG+2 is 26/8 with an af of 4.25 after 167 hands.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 3-bets, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Hero caps, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (13.20 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

River: (15.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 17.20 BB

I can't seem to finish a session with above 50% W$SD because of all the draws coming in on my hands lately. I've been getting destroyed lately and I'm trying to figure out why. Like my W$SD since the beginning of Oct. w/ 2 pair over 120 times is 36%. Whats your guys take on it?

Paxosmotic · #2 10-09-2005, 11:52 AM

There is absolutely no guarantee that he has a flush. This is 33, 22, or QQ+ very often. Like 90% of the time. I raise again and cap without a very good reason not to. You have ten outs to beat a flush, anyway, so we're certainly in a very good situation to scoop a big one.

bozlax · #3 10-09-2005, 12:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you know exactly what just beat you...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you KNOW at any point in this hand that you're beat, you need to give up poker and take up roulette, because you're psychic.

Raise and probably cap the turn. Even if he does have the flush, and if he does he played it very well, you've got plenty of outs to play this harder.

ckmo · #4 10-09-2005, 12:29 PM

yea yea...i'll reword that for you

"based on the outcome of the past 5000 hands I think I know exactly what just beat me but I hope I'm wrong"

bozlax · #5 10-09-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yea yea...i'll reword that for you

"based on the outcome of the past 5000 hands I think I know exactly what just beat me but I hope I'm wrong"

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, yeah, I know. I highlighted the problem with your question. What on earth does the outcome of the past 5000 hands (even if all of them were played with this Villan, and you had the exact same cards each time, and the hand was played the same each time, and you lost each time to a flush) have to do with the outcome of THIS hand?

There's a good section in one of the 2+2 books (it's too early in my day and my coffee consumption for me to figure out which one) discussing the predisposition of the human mind to find patterns and base our subsequent actions on those patterns (e.g. "I've been dealt and folded low sooted pocket one-gaps 5 times in the past 40 hands, and each time they'd have either hit the straight or the flush and won...I'm playing 64s from UTG this time, dammit, with 3 TAGs to my immediate left."), and how that's a recipie for quick poker failure. It's true.

ckmo · #6 10-09-2005, 01:07 PM

I know..that was just me being bitter. I keep waiting for it to change and in the meantime I keep calling down. Just wanted it to be reinforced by others. Thanks for the replies.

#7 10-09-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There's a good section in one of the 2+2 books (it's too early in my day and my coffee consumption for me to figure out which one) discussing the predisposition of the human mind to find patterns and base our subsequent actions on those patterns (e.g. "I've been dealt and folded low sooted pocket one-gaps 5 times in the past 40 hands, and each time they'd have either hit the straight or the flush and won...I'm playing 64s from UTG this time, dammit, with 3 TAGs to my immediate left."), and how that's a recipie for quick poker failure. It's true.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's in SSH and maybe somewhere in TOP.

DCWildcat · #8 10-09-2005, 01:56 PM

Meh, you could still be against a lower set here sometimes. Enough to make a river call profitable. And the turn call is justified because of your outs to boat up.