Return of The Good, The Bad....The Ugly? (10/07)

Hand 1: I check/fold the turn UI. You are drawing to a 4 outer against villian that has raised for the first time.
Hand 2: I check the flop and take a free card. SB check sends up a big warning bell. I check fold this UI.

[Carmine]

Hand #1- I don't understand how we can call this yet evryone seems to agree we have odds to do so. A passive, no raise, player 3-bet you. You could easliy be up against a set which has many more outs to improve than you do. Your Ace outs may be worthless and your Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dirty for the gutshot. So please explain

Hand #2 - I assume we are betting out on the flop after a TAG capper checks, which sets off all sorts of alarms, because.......we have a chance to win this on the flop? No that can't be it.

We don't want to give a free card to button?? Well maybe, but I think we are drawing just as often and were not interested in cleaning up our A or K outs. Also I think our TAG PF capper would have dealt with the free card issue if it was a concern. Sorry I see no reason to bet here.

Can we change the name of this thread to "The Bad and The Ugly"

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand #1- I don't understand how we can call this yet evryone seems to agree we have odds to do so. A passive, no raise, player 3-bet you. You could easliy be up against a set which has many more outs to improve than you do. Your Ace outs may be worthless and your Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dirty for the gutshot. So please explain

[/ QUOTE ]

My reasoning:

HU vs. a preflop 3-bettor, the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is almost always a clean out. Basically, he'd have to have exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for that not to be true, unless he was 3-betting very lightly. While 20 hands is nowhere near a large enough sample to get a read on his preflop raising standards, the fact that he hadn't raised yet makes it probable that he's either passive or of average aggression preflop. So I'm confident in having at least 4 good outs (if he's got QQ I have 5).

So it really came down to implied odds. I did a quick mental calculation after he bet, and figured out that I am usually going to make up at least 3 BBs on the expensive streets when I turn a Q. I'm getting about 8:1 SB immediate on the call, so plus the implied odds it becomes 14:1...clearly enough to call with a 4-outer. I figure the only time I'm behind on the flop & I don't pick up 3+ BBs after hitting my Q is when he has exactly JJ and checks through on the turn. If the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] falls on the turn, I'll lead with the intention of calling a raise & check/calling a non-diamond river.