Am I getting paranoid?

[gomberg]

A big leak of mine is calling way too many rivers - but at least I sleep easy at night [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I call here 100% of the time, right or wrong, unless I have a very solid read on a player, and even then I'm hesitant to fold (and probably won't).

I'm still crushing 5-10 with this leak, so until I start getting killed on these calls, I'm going to keep being a calling station. Face it, people overplay hands...

[AZK]

thank you, a voice of reason

[captZEEbo1]

I think only two hands villain has here is KJs, KQs , or QJ. I don't think any 2 pair or set type hands plays it like this.

[AdamBragar]

I hate the way I played this hand, not because of any results, but because I didn't think on the river. My exact logic on the river was, people overplay hands, I have a straight and I called. Here's what I usually do.

I try to put someone on a hand. That involves asking two questions:

1) What is he trying to represent? (aka What does he think I think he has)

and

2) What does he think I have?

Well, 1 is pretty easy in this case. He is trying to represent something strong.

From the way I played this hand, there's a chance he thinks I have QJ, but he could easily think I have 2 pair or a set. His push, probably means he at least thinks I have 2 pair and beats 2 pair or at least he has AK.

He never raised before the river. Therefore, he never tried to protect AK/a set. This would be odd of someone to never try to protect such a hand and then pushing the river. Even at 2-4, I only see the true donkeys do that. QJ is definitely a distinct possibility, but so is the flush.

What can I put him on?

Air, but he really can't expect me to fold too often and it's a really odd way to play a hand expecting to do some bluff on the river like this. I'd say 5 percent of the time it's air.

A set/two pair. For the reasons I stated above, I'd say it's this 20 percent of the time.

Straight and Flush. The rest of the time I put him on this.

So I guess from here it becomes a math problem. 500ish in the pot, 175 more to call.

25 percent of the time I win 500 for an EV of 125
x percent of the time I win 250 for an EV of x(250)
y percent of the time I lose 175 for an EV of y(-175)

I probably need the guy to have a straight about 45 percent of the time for this call to be good (that'd mean a flush would be 30 percent of the time). I think this makes it close, but it's probably a fold.

Anyway, he had K2 spades for the flush.