Party 750k cripple-me hand

[wizard]

I don't think that you can fold to the preflop raise or get away from the hand after the flop. 2 overcards are way behind a smaller pair after the flop so you got all your money in as the favorite and lost. BOOO but that is poker.

Does it work to make all of your raises 3 or 4 times the BB or about 1/2 of the 3 BB raise that you made preflop? Seems like it would have the same fold equity but would be much easier to walk away from when you begin to feel the heat.

[allenciox]

I disagree here. This is 750k guaranteed on Party, right? So most of the players are not total donks. I know that if I am in the BB, there are exactly 2 hands that I would make that minraise with --- AA and KK, and I would do that almost every time. Why? Because it works... people are too tempted to call that minraise without realizing that it pot commits them. Most good players are the same way. Without a better read, I would figure the majority of players in the 750k would not make a min-reraise in that situation with AQs --- it is an incredibly donk play. There is NOTHING wrong with the attempted steal preflop --- but you need to let the minraise go.

[fnurt]

But people do make this move with less than AA and KK. You guys have to get past this line of thinking that goes, "this is a weird play I would only make with hand X, therefore he most likely has hand X." Other people are not you. Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
But people do make this move with less than AA and KK. You guys have to get past this line of thinking that goes, "this is a weird play I would only make with hand X, therefore he most likely has hand X." Other people are not you. Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

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The problem is that you don't have a ton of chips relative to the blinds. You NEED to hit a flop, since it's quite likely your hand is behind (easily 90% you're behind your opponent in these spots)

And like I said, even when you hit a hand (such as top pair) you can't know with any certainty whether it's good. You could be up against an overpair, and you're still way behind.

You wind up committing too many of your chips and creating a pot that's too tempting to get away from.

I don't know how many players started that event, or how many get paid or what the payouts are. There are 180 left, and if there was a much larger field to begin with, I'm likely to give my opponents a bit more credit once they start getting whittled down.

That's not to say that donks can't or don't make final tables, so there's still chances of donks at your table.

I figure I can save 3K each time in those spots and wait for a better opportunity, or I can gambool it up, when it's highly unlikely my hand will beat my opponents holding in that spot.

Early in a tournament, where there are more donks out and deeper stacks, I don't mind calling and taking a shot at outflopping your opponent.

But it's similar to playing trap hands like K/J, Q/J, K/Q. If you hit your hand, will it be any good or are you dominated?

[ QUOTE ]
Heck, apparently I should start making this play with 72o, as all the good players seem to "know" that it means AA.

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The problem is, in the min-reraiser's spot, you don't know for sure whether the initial raiser is stealing or holding a bona fide hand. If you suspect steal but have a good hand yourself, a min-raise might be somewhat logical. First, you get more money in the pot when ahead. Second, if he just calls rather than reraises you all in, you get information (weak or trapping). However, if you started minraising the initial raiser with garbage a certain percentage of the time, you are going to be spewing chips when he comes over the top and you have to fold (which he will do lets say 1/4 times given the stacks here). A resteal with garbage is going to be much more likely to push over the top for much more than the minimum amount to take advantage of fold equity.

Because the minraise bluff from the blinds is so expensive in this spot, and because almost everyone in the intial raiser's spot calls this bet (and the minreraiser knows this), you have to give the reraiser credit for a hand that has you beaten severely or crushed and disappoint him by folding preflop here, even though it feels so weak you will vomit in your mouth a little bit. Of course, if this happens again, or if someone else minreraises you when you are somewhat strong preflop and you give that person credit for being a thinking player, or you see the minreraiser make this move multiple times at the table, you would tend much more towards calling or playing back. I just think default here is fold.

By the way, I HATE minraises!

[fnurt]

What you are saying about the value of your chips is a good argument for not trying the steal in the first place. But it's not a good argument for refusing to call an extra 3k when you have the odds. What if the min-raise, somehow, was only an extra 2k? 1k? 5 bucks?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
What you are saying about the value of your chips is a good argument for not trying the steal in the first place. But it's not a good argument for refusing to call an extra 3k when you have the odds. What if the min-raise, somehow, was only an extra 2k? 1k? 5 bucks?

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But it's not that little. And we can't afford to spew off more chips on such a marginal hand, that even if it hits is most likely beat by an overpair in these type of situations. Do you expect your opponent, out of position with 12K in the pot and just about that much left in chips himself, to check to you on the flop? He's betting no matter what, so unless you flop a monster with your 10/8 suited (how often does this happen?) you are not just calling the min-raise for 3K, you're calling for the rest of your stack.

Unless you plan to fold in all cases where you don't hit a piece of the flop (which is most of the time). If that's the case, then it's -EV since you're just throwing away your 3K the majority of the time, and stand to lose more chips in the long-run than you'll win when you do outdraw your opponent.

If Hero had a much deeper stack, this would be a different situation, but he's in no danger of going out, has position and can wait for a better spot.

[fnurt]

Ok, so he shouldn't raise in the first place, since he's not willing to put in any more chips. I don't have an issue with that argument.