Live Borgata Hand - Analysis Please

[Doylestown]

I've been back and forth on this one for a while now. Played this tourney over a month ago at Borgata and would like to see the opinions of this forum. Let me give you the tourney info.

Daily tourney $175 + $25. Slightly less than 100 players enter. Final table (9) are paid - only the top 3 spots matter to me. When you reach the final 3 in one of these daily tourneys the blinds are enormous in relation to the stacks and the cards generally dictate the outcome if a chop isn't agreed upon, which they typically are. We began with $5000 in chips.

We are nearing the end of the 4th level (levels last 20 minutes) with $100/$200 blinds and $25 antes. In a few hands the blinds will be $200/$400 w/ $50 antes. Not alot of hands are seen per round of blinds.

I've been at my table for the entire tourney, over an hour now and have a very good feel for my opponents styles. The donks are for the most part already gone. We are down to 60+ players over 7 tables. My table is 10 handed. I have $7800 after posting the bb $200 ($8000 total).

Seats 3 and 5 limp - my feelings are that they are definitely not strong. It folds to the button, one of the better players at the table who has an aggressive style. He pushes all in for $6500, most likely sensing what I sensed from the 2 limpers. I have a great read on the button and am 90% certain that he is holding AQ. I place a 5% chance on AK and a 5% chance on AJ. Essentially they'll mean the same thing but I wanted to share with you how the hand played out in my head as it occurred. Please don't flame me here for the confidence I have in my read on my opponents. When I am fortunate enough to pick up a tell I have been incredibly accurate and until it proves otherwise I will believe in them. I place a 0% chance that he holds a pair of any kind. In fact if it is easier for any of you for the sake of this question just pretend he turns his cards face up and shows AQ.

The small blind folds and there is $7450 in the pot and I look down at pocket 10's. It costs me $6300 of my remaining $7800 to call. Call and lose and I'm virtually dead. Call and win and I'm one of the tourney chip leaders and will certainly have a big lead at my table which should afford me some nice liberties. What's my play?

[toddshrop]

I would always rather push then call with this hand, but in this scenario there is more things you'd have to take into consideration. The chip sizes of everyone else at the table and there general level of play for instance. If you were among one of the leaders at your table and have a higher level of skill I would say to fold the tens and rely on aggression to wittle down your opponents chip stacks then gamble on coinflips for less money, but if you think you're gonna have to gamble to stay alive you might as well go with the read. The only thing I dont like about tens is your only at best a coinflip and at worst a huge dog, why not wait it out for a better spot to catch a player in, after all the blinds arent destructively big and you are at a full table which means your getting ten hands each round.

Plus you should have been able to judge what the players that limped are typical to limp with, cuase say they limped with connectors in hopes that they can hit big and trap someone in that case one of them may have a hand like 10-q or 9-10 elliminating one of your outs if you need to outdraw. Tens are tricky and usually it comes down to risk worth reward, me myself I wouldnt put my tornament on the line with them unless I believed I would have to gamble to get to the final table.

[betgo]

Villain went allin for 6500 at a 950 pot. I don't think you can be certain he has AQ or AJ-AK, although those are likely hands. He could have a pp, KQ-KJ, or a suited connector/gapper. It is very unlikely villain has AA-KK. Could he have JJ-QQ? Maybe. He could also have a lower pp.

You are ahead of everything but JJ-QQ and you have some pot odds, so I think it is an easy call.

[Doylestown]

betgo - thanks for the reply. You're in the call camp even allowing for the possibility of an overpair. That being said, I had a tell on the button which made me 100% positive he didn't hold a pair.

C'mon guys please chime in. Race for a big stack because of the tournament structure or fold and play a moderate stack from here?

[Kirkrrr]

There's still over 70 players left, so it's not like you're anywhere NEAR the money, and your chips are, more or less, where they were when you started. As such, given your read that there's no way he can be ahead of you, you have to call and take the chance to double up, with all the dead money already in the pot giving you a 15% overlay in and of itself. If you lose, you really haven't lost anything you ever had, and if you win accumulating chips should get a lot easier, as you mentioned yourself.

I also think that the chance he's on suited connectors or a lower PP is a lot higher than you assign it to be, but so are JJ/QQ. But, like you said, if it's AQo for the sake of discussion, you have to call.

Kirk

[kuro]

The trouble with calling is that you've got almost a 40bb stack to work with and you're not closing the action. I think I pass. If it was the next level, I'd call.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
The trouble with calling is that you've got almost a 40bb stack to work with and you're not closing the action. I think I pass. If it was the next level, I'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Lloyd]

TT vs. AQ is a 56 - 44 favorite. You're getting 1.2 to 1 odds. You're going to have to accumulate a lot of chips to make the final table and I don't think I'd pass up a situation where I'm the favorite AND getting favorable odds.