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#31
08-24-2005, 01:05 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BTW, what's your plan if you get called on the turn bet? I think you have to follow through and bet any river that is not a heart. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. If they're calling the turn they're just as likely to call the river with almost any 2-cards. The only way I'm betting the river is if I hit my straight. And this may be the best point as to why I need to check/fold the turn - I can't really legitimately follow up my turn bluff with a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] I couldn't disagree more. Villain here will too often call with a high heart and a very small piece of the board hoping you will check it to him with the latter. I think you get Villain to fold far too often with another bet on the river. You cannot allow him to win with a Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] by checking behind you. Maybe to mitigate the risk of this play, you can only bet the non-heart river if the SB calls your turn bet (seems less likely that SB has a hand worth calling 2 BBs with if he checked it twice.) IMO, if you're going to bet the turn here, you should be preprared to fire again on the river. Otherwise, keep your [cesnored] gun in the holster. 
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#32
08-24-2005, 01:09 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BTW, what's your plan if you get called on the turn bet? I think you have to follow through and bet any river that is not a heart. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. If they're calling the turn they're just as likely to call the river with almost any 2-cards. The only way I'm betting the river is if I hit my straight. And this may be the best point as to why I need to check/fold the turn - I can't really legitimately follow up my turn bluff with a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] I would think if your opponent called, there's a really good chance he has a FD, and he would fold to a blank river. [/ QUOTE ] No offense to you Vincent but you (and others) seem to keep making this point. I want to know what you're basing your information on. Why do you think (and what data do you have to support your theory) that MP3 isn't betting his BD flush draw on the flop when it's checked to him? Likewise, why do you think that SB wouldn't lead the turn with a decent [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] after the flop got checked through?
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#33
08-24-2005, 01:12 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't disagree more. Villain here will too often call with a high heart and a very small piece of the board hoping you will check it to him with the latter. I think you get Villain to fold far too often with another bet on the river. You cannot allow him to win with a Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] by checking behind you. Maybe to mitigate the risk of this play, you can only bet the non-heart river if the SB calls your turn bet (seems less likely that SB has a hand worth calling 2 BBs with if he checked it twice.) IMO, if you're going to bet the turn here, you should be preprared to fire again on the river. Otherwise, keep your [cesnored] gun in the holster. [/ QUOTE ] Read my reply to Vincent above and answer those two questions for me.
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#34
08-24-2005, 01:19 PM
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Re: 72s
LP doesn't bet the flop b/c he is passive. I don't think some passive player that missed the flop with say q10 and normally wouldn't bet is going to bet it just because he has a BD flush draw. Just my opinion.
Whether SB is going to bet here with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a small pair is also read dependent. It probably would be worthwhile to go through PT to analyze these types of situations as their is probably some profit to be had by being able to pick up pots in these situations.
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#35
08-24-2005, 01:25 PM
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Re: 72s
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] BTW, what's your plan if you get called on the turn bet? I think you have to follow through and bet any river that is not a heart. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. If they're calling the turn they're just as likely to call the river with almost any 2-cards. The only way I'm betting the river is if I hit my straight. And this may be the best point as to why I need to check/fold the turn - I can't really legitimately follow up my turn bluff with a river bet. [/ QUOTE ] I would think if your opponent called, there's a really good chance he has a FD, and he would fold to a blank river. [/ QUOTE ] No offense to you Vincent but you (and others) seem to keep making this point. I want to know what you're basing your information on. Why do you think (and what data do you have to support your theory) that MP3 isn't betting his BD flush draw on the flop when it's checked to him? Likewise, why do you think that SB wouldn't lead the turn with a decent [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] after the flop got checked through? [/ QUOTE ] None. The same way we don't have any info supporting the counter either. Here's my point. If you bet and are called it is at least equally likely that the opponent holds a heart as he holds something stronger that he will call a river bet with (though I think a call indicates more weakness than strength, but that's irelevant.) With 3.5BB in the pot, you're bluff on the river only has to be successful 1/4.5 times or 22% to be break-even. I think you're getting Villain to fold on river way more than this. That was my point. No data. No info. No PokerTracker. just plain math.
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