99

[thejameser]

except for pf i guess its okay. i suppose we have no AF stats on MP2. you are good here probably 90% of the time, as another poster stated, but that does not mean you are good this time. generic plays are for straightforward games, none of which have the place for long term success in limit hold em. we love loose/passive players for many reasons. we can control(often) the number of bets to get to sd through raises and pot manipulation because they don't usually play back. and they will call down with 4 outers and even decent hands that have edges that should be pushed, but are not because they are often in fear of the "nuts". we love them because they are often so readable if we do not have the best of it. when they wake up and become aggressive it is USUALLY because they have a very strong, if not the nut hand. but, the obvious disclaimer for any lower limit game, is that nothing is truly suprising coming from these players. but if you use the info you have to save a bet here and there, you are a bet or two richer in the long term.

[Piiop]

Good work on the math. Flop was capped 5 ways, turn was capped 4 ways - I'd say he made a lot of bets.

I'm not familiar with the 1:10 set holding up number, but wouldn't that have to already include the probability of someone (or multiple people) having overpairs and hitting higher sets?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not familiar with the 1:10 set holding up number, but wouldn't that have to already include the probability of someone (or multiple people) having overpairs and hitting higher sets?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but the probability someone holds an overpair to the 9's is greater in this hand since it's already capped when it gets to hero. The same 1:10 is used if there's only one raise in front of hero, but in that case the probability for that a higher PP than 9's is out there is much lower.

OTH a set can lose in differant ways than to another set, but this indication that strong hands are out there might make us adjust to 1:11. When there's only a raise you might adjust to 1:9.5.

As all of you understand 1:10 is not a very precise number since it varies with the number of opponents, their starting hands standards etc, but it's a much better estimation than assuming you win all the time.