Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > Multi-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #41  
Old 08-02-2005, 02:50 PM
SossMan SossMan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 559
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

you asked for the 'least bad' option. i never claimed that it was a good option. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


wha' happened?
Reply With Quote
  #42  
Old 08-02-2005, 02:58 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

Reply With Quote
  #43  
Old 08-02-2005, 04:11 PM
MLG MLG is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Cards Happen
Posts: 727
Default Results and Thoughts

During the hand I pushed for the following reasons. There are lots of mdae hands im ahead of. Specifically, AQ/AA/KK/KQ are hands I can see a lot. I think that's probably not the best course of action. I let the made hands I'm beating off the hook while only getting called by hands that crush me, or combo hands I'm about even money with. Which, while not the end of the world isn't ideal either. I also thought at the time that with so many scare cards there was potential for me to get pushed off the best hand on the turn or river.

Thinking about it though, I don't think that's the case. If he has a made hand its hard for him to bet scare cards if I just call the flop raise because it looks like I'm on the draw. I think the best play is to call the flop, lead non dangerous turns, and check fold most scare cards.

Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth.
Reply With Quote
  #44  
Old 08-02-2005, 04:27 PM
SossMan SossMan is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 559
Default Re: Results and Thoughts

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, villain thought for a while and then turned over K10 of spades for the nuts. Slow rollers are the scum of the earth.


[/ QUOTE ]

maybe he put you on k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]t [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and was trying to not get freerolled for his 'tournament life'.
Reply With Quote
  #45  
Old 08-02-2005, 04:35 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 469
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

OK, lets do some back of the envelope math to see where we are at: I am not advocating a push, lets just suppose it.

hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620.

Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620).

So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push?


Total - with at least one club
KQ-12 ways 3 ways
AA - 6 ways 3 ways
KK - 6 ways 3 ways
KJ - 8 ways 2 ways
K9 - 8 ways 6 ways
AT - 16 ways 6 ways
AK - 16 ways 6 ways
TJ - 8 ways 2 ways
T9 - 8 ways 2 ways
T7 - 16 ways 6 ways
QT - 12 ways 4 ways
T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP)
two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed).

so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands.

Overall it looks pretty unclear and is not a huge EV+ for hero even if villain will raise with a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q.
The situation will be affected by villain's willingness to raise some of the more marginal hands. I don't see why hero would want to commit his chips here when he is either way behind with no FE or a little ahead with a lot of FE (assuming villain throws down the marginal hands to a push)

In general the hands against which you are ahead have a greater chance of improving than you do, so hero's situation is not likely to improve at the turn: I don't think hero wants to see any more cards.
Reply With Quote
  #46  
Old 08-02-2005, 05:04 PM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)


OK, lets do some back of the envelope math...
boy, that's a large envelope

hero pushes and risks 1930 (villain's remaining chips) to win 620.

Let's start by assuming that villain folds everything but 2pr++ so there are ~40 hands in which villain is 5:1 dog; => EV ~725. So villain needs to fold ~2:1 or ~80 hands to bring hero's total EV to ~1930 (~725 + 2 X 620).

So the question is are there ~80 hands that villain will raise with ATF and fold to a push?


Total - with at least one club
KQ-12 ways 3 ways
AA - 6 ways 3 ways
KK - 6 ways 3 ways
KJ - 8 ways 2 ways
K9 - 8 ways 6 ways
AT - 16 ways 6 ways
AK - 16 ways 6 ways
TJ - 8 ways 2 ways
T9 - 8 ways 2 ways
T7 - 16 ways 6 ways
QT - 12 ways 4 ways
T6* - 16 ways 6 ways (may not open worse than this in EP)
two clubs ~50 ways (double counting some of the hands listed).

so villain needs to raise to T350 with at least any two clubs, and a pair with one club to make 80 hands.



Reply With Quote
  #47  
Old 08-02-2005, 05:12 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 469
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)

lot of estimates: the point is it can mostly be done in your head.

hero pushes 1930 to win 620 ~3:1
~30 str8s (kt, t8)
~10 2pr++ (qq,jj,99,qj,q9)
hero is 5:1 dog (4 outs X 2 tries)
hero has 15% in the center (~T4200) for 725
needs 1200 to make him whole which means picks up 620 twice for every call. 2:1 => 80 hands

~50 flush draws (10club X 10 clubs /2 )
~80 pairs with 1/3 of them having a club. ~30

Much smaller envelope needed.
Reply With Quote
  #48  
Old 08-02-2005, 05:32 PM
curtains curtains is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: Bottom 2 Makes me Sick (occasionally)


I like to check these flops, but I know I'm in the minority here. You aren't going to win a big pot with your J9o here most of the time, and you often aren't going to clarify anything by leading out.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.