AKs hits but really scary board, is this standard?

[_Kevin_]

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Checking is the safe way...and probably what i SHOULD do


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Why do you think so? I think with these opponents there are so many hands that they could have that they will call with and you beat.

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Both players had VP$IP of 22-25%. These are not the any 2 will do type. How often do you think this is hand is good? If we assume both players will call 1 or 2 bets and would only raise if they beat me, I would need to be good 50% of the time (I win 2 if I bet and I'm ahead and I lose 2 if I bet and am reraised). I know this doesn't factor in everything (like 2 back to me or reraising when behind or folding to a bet). I lose to any 2 diamonds, any hand with a T (AT, KT, QT, JT or TT) and the only hands that will call that I beat (that will call) have a lower 2 pair. Because I have 2 hands, I would need to beat 70% of the possible hands (that would mean I'm likely ahead 50% of the time). I haven't worked through all the combinations but at first glance I'm guessing that is -EV.

Am I missing something fundamental?