Flopped top set...help

[theredpill5]

I don't have the hand history but this hand bothered me.

It was at .10/.25 NL

pot was 1.45 on flop

Villain was in SB.
Hero in MP with T T

Flop was T 8 3.

Villain bet 25 cents
Hero raised to $2
Villain calls

Turn: 6
Villain checked
Hero bet $3
Villain raised to $9
Hero folds

I figured him for the straight. 6 to Ten. I figured this because of the 25 cent bet is a common draw bet at these stakes. The thing is that I'm getting tired of folding all these terrific hands to morons playing 9 7 . Next time I get TT , I'm raising to weed out the idiots.

[tbach24]

I post bad-post deleted

[theredpill5]

I know. After I thought about it, my fold was ridiculous. The only hand that beats me is 9 7 . Isn't the term fold equity ?

What is my fold equity here ? Isn't it like 5 % or something which means I have to call or push all-in here ?
Anyone familiar with fold equity help me out. Please don't just say "weak " or bad . That doesn't help me learn. I have to call because he is in the SB and there are tons of hands he could be raising me with. Set of 6's, set of 8's , set of 3's, T 8, T6, T3, 8 6, 8 3, straight draw 7 5, on and on , right ? Especially at the .10/.25 NL stakes. Geez.

There is only one hand that beats me .... 9 7.

Right ? Thanks for replying . I appreciate it. I just want to learn.

[djoyce003]

You call the bet. Call whatever bet he makes on the river and push unless the board is truly frightening if you think he'll call. You have a ton of full house outs IF he has the straight, which isn't likely. You want him to bet again on the river, and a push might fold a worse hand. Just call, you are showing this down, if he has the straight, oh well, rebuy.

[rikz]

Don't forget that with top set you have a good chance of improving to top full house with two cards left to deal. I only mention that because you're probably ahead, but if you're behind, you still have 7 outs to quads or a full (one T, three 8s, and three 3s) giving you about a 7x4=~28% chance to win even if he has flopped a straight. Since he clearly likes his hand, and you were playing TT for a set, I can't see getting away from it on the flop without getting more money into the pot. Depending on your stack sizes, I'd push with a relatively short stack (up to $20 or so left) to get value over smaller sets or two pairs and price out any open ended straight draws. If your stacks are deeper, maybe pushing is not as good as a $20 raise that would serve the same purposes without necessarily putting your whole stack in before the turn.

If you know them, I think any kind of read on the Villain and stack sizes would help the discussion of the hand like this.

I just can't see folding this to a flop reraise.

Anyone disagree with this assessment? I'm a new poster, too, and I'm trying to improve my thought process on decisions like this.

Albert Moulton

[rikz]

Is this what I've seen referred to as a "stop and go?" You call the flop bet, then reraise the leader's turn bet hoping to get him pot committed with the second best hand?

Albert Moulton

[theredpill5]

Cool. You came to the right place Albert. Villain didn't seem like a total idiot to me. He had made about a $5 profit on his stack before this hand. He was sitting with $30 and buy-in is $25. He seemed to be making some decent decisions except for the pair of 6's and he could have known something about the guy who pushed. I think he was observing the game. I think he possibly observed how tight I was and maybe figured he could out-play me. I was kind of hoping to break this discussion down to a more mathematical /probability based discussion.

[Leaky Game]

You can't fold, guys raise with too much junk for you to fold 2nd best here especially since 97 isn't a likely holding. At these levels I've seen people bet big on gutshots and the like. Even if he does have the straight you have too many outs to fold here. If he does flip 97 just remember that he's paying you off in the long run. (this is what guys like us say when we lose to bad starting hands, it doesn't make us really feel any better but it is true =) )

[theredpill5]

Berge, or anyone else who would like to answer.

What if Hero never folded a top set and would call anything even a push for his entire buy-in.... just one buy-in, though. ? Not talking about dropping 50 in a $25 buy-in. Positive EV ? I would think so at small stakes NL .

[djoyce003]

Probably +EV at any level known to man...especially if you tweaked it for things like 4 straights or 4 flushes on the board.