When is enough enough?

[NSchandler]

This is not a bad beats story in disguise or anything like that. I'm simply wanting some advice.

I'm on a long, deep slide and I am really starting to question my game. Over my last 23K hands or so, I'm down about 320 BB, and this is at full ring. Now, if it's only a slide, then I can deal with that. Frustrating yes, but it's not like I'm gambling with rent money or anything. But after such a slide, my win rate has fallen to a paltry 0.66BB/100 over 55K hands, and I'm basically questioning whether I'm a winning player any more.

It's obvious that it's not all just luck, as 320BB is simply too big of a slide over 23K hands for a player who's beating the game for a reasonable amount. I'm a [censored] player, I realize that. But I am playing at 2/4, and I believe I am competent enough to be beating that level, since nearly everybody at 2/4 is crap.

So, here is my question: is it just obvious that I'm not a winning player, and I was simply on a 32K hand upswing prior to the downturn, can this be luck, or has my game just fallen off the deep end?

If anybody could look at my numbers and tell me what stands out, it would be much appreciated. I realize that I would need to post specific hands to see many of my mistakes, but I'm sure that there are things that are going to jump out that I'm clearly doing wrong consistently.

I know my VPIP is too low, and I've been working on that. A small part of that low VPIP comes from my not getting as good of starting hands as I should, but most of it is my own poor pre-flop play. However, over the past 5K hands or so, it's been a bit higher, about 16%, and the slide has continued.

I feel like my numbers show that I don't go to showdown enough, but at the same I feel like I have been calling too many turn check-raises and such. Eh I don't know.

Anyway, thanks for putting up with my desultory post, and please tell me what a [censored] player I am, it's the only way I can learn.

Edit:
Ok, I can't post a screenshot since I don't have a website to host the picture. However, here are my biggest numbers

$2/$4, total hands 23,671
VPIP: 14.09 (much too low I know)
Vol. Put $ in from SB: 23.01
Folded SB to steal: 86.60
Folded BB to steal: 80.65 (not defending my blinds enough)
Att. to Steal Blinds: 27.66 (should be low 30s?)
Won $ WSF %: 32.23
Amount won: ($1,216.32)
BB/100 Hands: (1.28)
Went to SD %: 26.69
Won $ at SD %:56.00
PF Raise %:7.67

Aggression
Flop 3.12
Turn 2.98
River 1.47 (yuck, value bet you loser)
Total: 2.64

Any other numbers I should be looking at for glaring holes? Again, thanks for any input.

I think they're a few things you can improve based on your stats:

1. As you've said, VPIP is obviously too low. Try to steal more liberally first in, and possibly limp in with the more marginal type holdings from MP, etc (ie. pocket pairs)

2. You're not defending your blinds enough, but you already knew that. When defending in the SB, it's important you generally 3-bet to avoid giving BB the odds to continue.

3. Raise more preflop. Stealing more liberally will help raise your pf raise %.

4. It also appears you're not getting to showdown enough. Possibly folding potential winners on the turn and flop.

5. River aggression is obviously low, try to value bet more here. Don't be afraid to take a bet/fold line when the situation calls for it. Also try to avoid calling down aimlessly.

There's a database of 2+2 players 2/4 and 3/6 stats somewhere, though I don't know how to link. Try to compare your stats to that, to get a basic idea where you're at. Search for "Tiger woods" in the search engine and it should come up.

I don't think I really identified anything new to you, but hope I helped in someway.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Start over, Read these, and begin with a clean slate

over 220BB is the biggest downswing I've had and it sucked, but life does go on

[Harv72b]

Didn't read the other replies, so I'm probably going to be rehashing a lot of what was already said.

For starters, big downswings happen. I went through about a 2 month long downswing in the beginning of this past summer that crushed my confidence and had me asking many of the same questions you are. In the end, I eventually recognized and corrected my biggest problem: loose, overaggressive play on 6max tables. Now, if anything I think that I'm a little too passive postflop, but the WR is back where I want it anyway.

There are several things that jump out at me in the stats you posted, though.

As you said, your VPIP is too low. On the 5/10 tables (a considerably more aggressive game than 2/4), I play about an 18% VPIP; I recognize that most players would be more comfortable with around 16% there, but I have a tendency to push some small edges. In the typical 2/4 game, I would think that 18% would be the lower end of where you'd like to be, unless you're playing 4 or more tables (then, probably still in the 16-18 range). Probably a good bit of why your VPIP is too low relates to your blind stealing/defending.

VPIP from SB is also a bit low for a 1:2 blind structure game.

And yes, you need to be stealing the blinds more often, and especially defending your blinds more often. Going from your numbers, you are basically only defending your blinds with the same hands that you play from outside the blinds, and you're not adjusting your defending range based on whether you're in the SB or BB. I've started some pretty lengthy debates on here in the past with my stance that blind stealing isn't really of critical importance until you reach the 3/6 level, but you have to at least recognize that your opponents are trying to steal on 2/4. Defend that BB more often, especially. And it would also behoove you to increase your own stealing frequency into the low 30's, as you said.

You need to be raising much more often preflop. This includes making more steal raises, raising behind a limper from LP with borderline hands (especially if that limper is loose and/or predictable), raising strong suited broadway from the blinds, etc. At some point, you want your PFR percentage to hit double digits. Maybe that's a bit much for a relatively passive game like 2/4, but I don't think so. You certainly want to get it up there before moving up any further.

Now, the most critical point--your postflop play. Your numbers scream "weak/tight". Your WtSD% is way low--this should be in the low to mid 30's. Your W$SD is in the upper portion of the "good" range, which does show a bit of bad luck during this stretch, but not enough to single-handedly account for your losses. You simply must stay in more often with borderline draws, or in HU situations with borderline made hands. You are likely folding winning hands fairly often, which is directly responsible for your paltry W$WSF number (and, therefore, a good amount of your losses).

This is also demonstrated in your postflop aggression numbers. I think that your flop & turn aggression are each a little too high, which is probably a result of folding too often rather than overplaying your made hands. Your river aggression is maybe a hair low, especially considering how rarely you appear to be getting to the river, but is not far off of where it should be.

In a nutshell, my advice to you is that you raise more often preflop, defend your blinds more often, and don't fold so easily postflop. It may seem like I'm knocking pretty much every facet of your game, but honestly--these problems are not at all unusual in a relatively new player. Moreover, some of these deficincies could be a direct result of your downswing, especially since you were posting a healthy WR before the last 23k hands. Most people think of tilt as getting too loose and foolishly spewing off your chips, but it's just as easy (and probably more common, especially over longer periods) to tilt in the opposite direction and start folding/playing too passively while expecting to lose.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Went to SD %: 26.69
Won $ at SD %:56.00

[/ QUOTE ]


You are getting 'run over' You have to stop folding so much postflop. You should be around 32-34 I believe. You are folding a lot of winners.

[Klompy]

I also have stats reflecting the original poster, and a very modest winrate. Everyone on here makes it seem like having a 15-16 vpip is playing extremly tight, and really I just cant figure out how to get above this, It's like everyones hiding a secret or something of how to get to 18%. I just started playing some 6 max to try improve my steal/defending, but it's frustrating because i'm just getting run over there. I guess i'm just rambling now, but is trying out the 6 max games a good way for a 15-16% to go get to a 18-20%?

[NSchandler]

Thanks for the replies guys, especially Harv with your detailed (and accurate) suggestions.

I knew or suspected that much of what you all pointed out was true, but I guess I didn't realize just how often I am getting run over. Also, I needed somebody to call me weak-tight. It's so embarrassing [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

FWIW, numbers before my downswing were closer to what they should be, with vpip of about 16%, pfr of 8%, wtsd of about 31, etc. Still not great, but they were better than they are now. This probably means that the downturn has turned me (more) weak-tight, since that is my indeed my "default" style.

I'm thinking of perhaps trying out some 6max - if there's something that can teach you to stop being such a wimp and get in there and mix it up, 6max is it I suppose.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
I also have stats reflecting the original poster, and a very modest winrate. Everyone on here makes it seem like having a 15-16 vpip is playing extremly tight, and really I just cant figure out how to get above this, It's like everyones hiding a secret or something of how to get to 18%. I just started playing some 6 max to try improve my steal/defending, but it's frustrating because i'm just getting run over there. I guess i'm just rambling now, but is trying out the 6 max games a good way for a 15-16% to go get to a 18-20%?

[/ QUOTE ]

In most cases, you can pick up the extra 2-3 points by stealing more aggressively and isolating on a loose limper when you're in LP with a borderline hand. And yes, 6max will (eventually) help you out a great deal in that regard. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Party 1/2 6max is ridiculously soft, and I would highly recommend that everyone make a stop there, at least before moving up to 3/6. Also, reading the HUSH forum on here is very helpful--there are some great threads on there about how to be properly aggressive in a 6max game, which you can find with a bit of searching.