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#1
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10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
Villian is 68/2/0.35 after 250 hands; haven't seen him do anything tricky yet.
I open in MP with QcJc. Villain calls from the SB. Flop is 4hTcQh. Villian checks, I bet, Villian calls. Turn is Kh. Villian checks, I bet, Villian raises, Hero... Pot is now 6.5BB. |
#2
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
pretty easy muck i think... he has a flush or a straight more than a king here...
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#3
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
pretty easy muck i think... he has a flush or a straight more than a king here... [/ QUOTE ] You might also want to consider Hero has the open ender to eh nut straight. A villian this passive worries me when he comes to life, but i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI. |
#4
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
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i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI. [/ QUOTE ] I think folding the turn would be pretty ridiculous. The only question is whether or not we pay off the river unimproved, and I don't think it's clearcut. |
#5
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI. [/ QUOTE ] I think folding the turn would be pretty ridiculous. The only question is whether or not we pay off the river unimproved, and I don't think it's clearcut. [/ QUOTE ] nice timing huh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#6
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
You might also want to consider Hero has the open ender to eh nut straight. A villian this passive worries me when he comes to life, but i think i like calling the turn raise and check-folding the river UI. [/ QUOTE ] i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here. |
#7
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
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i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here. [/ QUOTE ] I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold. |
#8
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
All your outs are tainted, this is a fold:
-If an Ace, Jack or 9 comes, the pot is either split or you are beaten most of the time... -If a Q comes are you going to be comfortable raising this river? Check call? -then there is the chance he has a made flush and you're drawing dead I didn't put any % on the above chances because it would be completely arbitrary, but I would say this is a definite fold due to reverse implied odds and the passivity of the opponent. |
#9
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i really don't like calling the turn, I think the Ah 9h are very tainted. we're getting 6.5-1 which is almost enough for six outs but we have reverse implied odds here. [/ QUOTE ] I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold. [/ QUOTE ] You are vastly, and i mean VASTLY overestimating the range here that a villian with a .35 aggression factor has when he check raises this turn. The river is a very easy muck UI, he just about never has worse than 2 pair here. I like calling the turn and calling the river if it's a J straight card. Even a Q is questionable against a villian like this, which means with the tainted outs, it could just be best to fold here. I'm going to stick to call the turn raise and call a river bet if we improve, but we are drawing dead here A LOT. Gabe |
#10
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Re: 10/20 6max: standard call down or easy fold?
[ QUOTE ]
I would give usmore than six outs, here, maybe 6.5 for our straight outs and another 1 for our Q outs. Add in the fact that we get to act last on the river and I don't think folding the turn can be right. We have to figure out how to play the river which is probably going to be tough but still I think we have too many outs here to fold. [/ QUOTE ] let's figure this out. P is probability villain has made flush P1 is probably villain has one heart 36 blanks - we lose 1bb 6 clean straight outs - we lose 2bb (what's the line?) P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times 2 dirty straight outs - we lose 2bb (line?) P1 times, win 7.5bbs (1-P1) times 2 queens - we lose 2bb P times, win 7.5 bbs (1-P) times EV=(36/46*-1)+(8/46*(P*-2 + (1-P)*7.5))+(2/46*(P1*-2 + (1-P)*7.5)) it appears after looking at this that ev is neutral at about P=1/3 and P1=2/3. I don't think we're that good. maybe you have a good river line though? |
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