Donk the turn or c/r?

SomethingClever · #1 10-18-2005, 03:45 PM

Villain here is a table berating weak-tightie. His stats are something like 16/7/2.x

On the flop, I will usually c/r and lead the turn. However, a 3-bet from this guy preflop is incredibly strong, so I figured this flop hit him at least a little bit and he would be unlikely to fold. I was going to pop him when I made my hand.

Then... I didn't. What was I thinking?

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

surfdoc · #2 10-18-2005, 04:08 PM

I think a turn checkraise here is in order. If he is very weak tight he may find a fold but he is just very likely to have a made hand like 2 pair or a set and call down. Even if he has a Q you are very likely to be on a freeroll with your club redraw considering there is only one card in the deck that makes him a better flush.

2+2 wannabe · #3 10-18-2005, 04:15 PM

isn't this a super easy turn c/r?

Ben5505 · #4 10-18-2005, 04:23 PM

I like a flop CR with a turn lead.

SomethingClever · #5 10-18-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
isn't this a super easy turn c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I agree. I just changed my read on the fly for no reason.

Flop: "Oh, he's tight. This probably hit him and I doubt he'll fold either to a flop c/r or turn lead. Just wait and make my hand."

Turn: "Hmm, I have the nut straight. Better not c/r or he might fold."

Guh???

Crimson · #6 10-18-2005, 04:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like a flop CR with a turn lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

wackjob · #7 10-18-2005, 05:02 PM

Turn c/r standard.

waffle · #8 10-18-2005, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
super easy turn c/r

[/ QUOTE ]

ZZZ · #9 10-18-2005, 05:11 PM

I don't like check raising the flop here. You are usually behind, and if you are ahead, it's often against something like 88 which you don't want to scare away. I think I check call the flop against just about everbody.

Easy turn check raise though.

ZZZ

jba · #10 10-18-2005, 05:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like check raising the flop here. You are usually behind, and if you are ahead, it's often against something like 88 which you don't want to scare away. I think I check call the flop against just about everbody.

Easy turn check raise though.

ZZZ

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 88/99 are a stretch for this guy to 3bet an UTG TAG raise. I think we are nearly certainly behind to this guy, and aside from that I can't think of one hand in a reasonable estimate of his range (TT+,AQ+) that would ever, ever fold before the river, except maybe to runner runner clubs.

with like a 2% chance he's folding and terrible equity heads up we want to put in the absolute minimum until we hit.