drawing with two pair in huge pot--a mistake?

Cadence Lauren · #1 12-08-2005, 01:53 PM

I feel my preflop call was okay with two limpers, and when it was raised behind me, I was involved a huge pot. I reraised on the reasoning that
a) I would only win this pot by completing a draw, and
b) if I did hit my draw, everyone else would likely have hands that were very slim to beat me. Therefore I raised to increase their pot odds after the flop and keep them in the hand while building a pot that would be a monster if I won it. I believe this strategy is somewhere in ToP, but I couldn't find the page number.

Reads: BB 45/6/1.2, MP 69/10/.6, Button 36/0/1.0, other positions had just joined.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls, Button calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP caps, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (24 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls, Button folds, SB folds.

Turn: (14 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, MP calls, Hero calls.

River: (17 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Jh 5c (full house, fives full of threes).
Outcome: BB wins 18 BB. 

I believe the flop call was borderline--with a 5 or an overpair out against me, I'm only a 22:1 dog to see the next card, but with a 9 out, I'm drawing to a split pot, giving implied odds of maybe 3:1 (15-18 bb split pot to 2.5 bb to call on three streets) on what amounts to a 1-out draw. I'm wondering about the turn call, as well. If one of my opponents has a 5 or a 9, I'm not getting the correct odds to draw at 10.5:1. Finally, I figured on the river I was certainly done, as one of my opponents must have either a 5 or an overpair.

So my analysis is pre-flop and river played correctly, flop borderline and turn a mistake. Comments?

Spicymoose · #2 12-08-2005, 02:01 PM

Wow, that is some weird preflop action. I guess it is fine though. I would raise any non diamond, non A,K (I am not sure about Q) turn card. I don't get calling the turn, yet folding the river. The 3 didn't really change anything. I either call down, or fold the turn. It costs 2 BB to call down in an 18 BB pot, so we have to be good 1 in 9. On top of this, we improve rarely, yet there are tons of cards that can improve our opponents. I probably just fold the turn.

BB is passive, so I don't think he would play a weaker 9 like this often enough. Even if he does play a weaker 9, you are splitting the pot with him often. Plenty of times you are just crushed here. Having MP still in the hand sucks also.

ZZZ · #3 12-08-2005, 02:22 PM

I don't like preflop, but I don't think it's a big deal. I doubt you win this pot more than 1/6 of the time. Bloating the pot to get people to chase incorrectly is a thought, but I don't think it matters much at this level. They'll chase anyway.

Flop is OK. You might be ahead, but can't really protect your hand. Here you should be thinking about raising the turn to protect your hand if there are still people to act behind you.

Turn is OK too I think, at this point you are most likely behind, but it's not sure enough to fold.

River is really bad. You are folding top pair in a huge pot for one bet closing the action. The only strength anyone shown is one person betting. He could easily have 88/77/66 or a worse 9.

Z

MrWookie47 · #4 12-08-2005, 02:24 PM

I agree with you, but I really don't like the LRR. The fact that you have to hit a draw is the reason why you DON'T make it 3 bets. You kill your implied odds. You'd much rather see the flop for 2 bets instead of three when there are so many flops that you'll just have to fold.

Spicymoose · #5 12-08-2005, 02:42 PM

I am unsure about the LRR myself. In terms of preflop equity, we are close to equity neutral, maybe with a slight edge, but our raise preflop doesn't really do much for immediate EV.

The question is whether we will make more money postflop with a 18 BB pot vs a 12 BB pot (the fact that it got capped, although it happens sometimes, is somewhat rare).

Once the pot gets to be so large, people will definetly be drawing with slim pickings more often. Also, although it doesn't happen always, we could potentially see a free turn. When the pot is large, if there arn't any strong draws, people may be scared to bet into 5 opponents without a really strong hand. Our reraise also prevents SB from leading a lot of flops, which, although he won't always do, will be doing far less often after we LRR.

I am not saying it is necessarily correct, but I do think that it could potentially be.

Aaron W. · #6 12-08-2005, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I feel my preflop call was okay with two limpers, and when it was raised behind me, I was involved a huge pot. I reraised on the reasoning that
a) I would only win this pot by completing a draw, and
b) if I did hit my draw, everyone else would likely have hands that were very slim to beat me. Therefore I raised to increase their pot odds after the flop and keep them in the hand while building a pot that would be a monster if I won it. I believe this strategy is somewhere in ToP, but I couldn't find the page number.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you find it, let me know. I disagree with this thinking 100%.

Part b seems flawed because you're not making a distinction between flopping a draw and hitting your draw. If you flop a draw, you will lose the pot most of the time. Most of the time, you won't even flop a draw.

If you hit your draw (on the turn or river usually), most of the time players are going to call you down anyway, and the pot size doesn't affect their decision very much.

I don't think you flop and make your draw often enough to bloat the pot 6-handed (you flop a flush draw only about 12% of the time).

MrWookie47 · #7 12-08-2005, 03:09 PM

The problem with looking at this from an equity stand point is that a non-negligible fraction of our hot-cold equity comes from backdoor draws: backdoor straight draws, backdoor flush draws, backdoor trips/two pair draws, and whatever else. On the flop, though, we'll often have to fold these. Sure, if we LRR, the pot may be so big that we have to draw, but that's only because we made an earlier mistake. I'd definitely forego a slight equity edge preflop here because of how many times we have nothing on the flop. I'd much rather wait to exploit the larger edge when we have a draw worth pursuing.

Spicymoose · #8 12-08-2005, 03:17 PM

My point wasn't that we are making equity preflop. I think preflop is pretty much a wash, considering we probably have a slight equity advantage, but as you say, we won't be able to get to showdown all the time.

Let's just make a guess at what our immediate EV of the preflop reraise is. Let's just give outself about 18% equity. Lets also say that we miss out on preflop equity because we can't see a showdown 1/4 of the time I think that this is fair, because most of our equity comes from when we have a favorable flop. If anything, I think we realize more than this equity, but I am trying to be generous against my point. Anyway, we are putting in 1 SB preflop, so if we were to do this hot cold, we would end up netting 1.08 SB, and have a profit of .08 SBs. But, since we only realize 3/4 of this, we are actually only getting .81 SB back, so we have a net loss of .19 SB, or about .1 BB.

The question is whether our preflop reraise has put us in a situation postflop where we will be able to make more than .1 BB extra than we would have if we had just called preflop. I am not sure that we will, as perhaps our LRR actually lowers our postflop equity, but I don't believe that is the case.

BigBrother · #9 12-08-2005, 04:04 PM

I don't like the LRR preflop. I think you just call and the pot is big enough. Your hand is speculative so why go investing the extra $$ up front. Also once the pot gets huge, people start doing weird things 'because the pot is big' and you end up losing more $ post-flop in the marginal situations.

Am I the only one who hates flat calling this flop? You flopped top pair on a raggedy board. I see 2 reasons to raise here:

1) SB, the pfr checked, so probably has overcards. He won't likely call 2 back to him, but if he DOES then you know your 9 is in trouble.

2) BB bet into the field. WTF does he have? Is he a tricky player or will he re-raise you if he has the 5 or an overpair? Find out on the flop so you can fold the turn and save your $$.

The way it played out I think the river is a call closing the action H/U. You are ahead of 77, 66, 97, 96, 94, 92, and chopping with another 98. Not likely but worth 6% IMO.

bobman0330 · #10 12-08-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I feel my preflop call was okay with two limpers, and when it was raised behind me, I was involved a huge pot. I reraised on the reasoning that
a) I would only win this pot by completing a draw, and
b) if I did hit my draw, everyone else would likely have hands that were very slim to beat me. Therefore I raised to increase their pot odds after the flop and keep them in the hand while building a pot that would be a monster if I won it. I believe this strategy is somewhere in ToP, but I couldn't find the page number.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you find it, let me know. I disagree with this thinking 100%.

Part b seems flawed because you're not making a distinction between flopping a draw and hitting your draw. If you flop a draw, you will lose the pot most of the time. Most of the time, you won't even flop a draw.

If you hit your draw (on the turn or river usually), most of the time players are going to call you down anyway, and the pot size doesn't affect their decision very much.

I don't think you flop and make your draw often enough to bloat the pot 6-handed (you flop a flush draw only about 12% of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]

DS recommends occasionally 3-betting PF with hands like T9s so that, if you flop perfect, people will be enticed to call with overcards, even though they're drawing nearly dead. He specifically says don't do it if they'll call anyways, which these guys will.