$22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[pergesu]

fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

[45suited]

Perg, my point is that it is the best of many bad options. And for the reasoning I gave in my last post, I think that the OP's stack is just large enough that the hand doesn't turn into a call, call, check it down nightmare.

Being able to open push from the button w/ a slightly above average hand seems like as good as we can hope for, IMO.

[pergesu]

I see what you mean, and I agree that his stack is big enough that he's not going to get called in both spots all the time. But he's going to get called in both spots enough of the time that I think it's going to be -EV. I mean when I looked at this, it was only +0.2 or +0.3%, and that's of course only when you get one caller. That's very close, and when you consider the fact that sometimes you get two callers, I think it swings it into the -EV zone. Basically I'm not confident enough that a push is +EV to actually do it. It's all crappy, as you said, but I'd rather hope for a walk in the BB or just race one player.

[pooh74]

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fwiw, I'm the one that initially told him this wasn't a super easy push, and I guess that's why he posted the hand. Hopefully we can get this ish back on track and move the trolling/troll-hunting to another thread.

This hand is really close imo. I don't think he has much FE over the BB at all - BB's probably calling like 80%+ of hands. Which if we put SB on 'M' in SNGPT, and BB at 80%, it's still +EV by like 0.2% if I remember correctly. Anyway, the problem is is that whenever the SB calls, the BB is almost always calling since now he has the chance to bust you AND he has very nice pot odds. So you get called by both players a fair % of the time, and the SB might even be calling as much as 30-40% of hands. When you get called by both players it's truly disastrous, regardless of your range.

I'd rather try to wait for a hand that has at least a decent chance of doubling you up when you go UI. J8o is just not good enough when there's the chance that you're up against two players. You may or may not get this hand...but I think it's a lot better to then just take your BB (I certainly would not push from UTG with this stack since you get called by 2+ players WAY too often). Your opponents will recognize that they have no FE and often give you a walk, or at worst you're probably only going up against one player.

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

Youre not gaining any FE if you wait and only losing EV by having the possibility of MORE players in the hand.

Youre not even assured of having it folded to you again before the blinds hit you, let alone the fact that SB and BB calling is the same probability in later hands as it is now.

So the negative prognosis of your analysis is really only compounded by waiting.

[pergesu]

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

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I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

[pooh74]

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

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I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

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You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

[pergesu]

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What 45s said, plus, you need to apply this kind of thinking to the next two hands as well to get a feel for how crappy the situation REALLY is.

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I'm saying you don't need to push any of the next couple hands. In all likelihood, you'll end up racing in the BB. If you happen to get lucky enough to get a nice hand that you can shove, awesome. It's just better to race or even get a walk in the BB than it is to make EXTREMELY marginal pushes for your entire stack, even though it's quite small.

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You want to get the most out of that stack in situations like these. It isnt about giving up, its all about the fact that you have an opportunity here to make HALF of the remaining players fold and to be HU a majority of the time. Your FE against SB is real...that's the crux of the argument.

If I had t140 I would wait for a better hand.

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I think most of this boils down to how often do SB and BB call. I think BB's calling 75%+ of hands. However when SB calls (how much? 15% 25%?), BB will call with 100% of hands because he's getting pot odds and probably knows you're "supposed" to try to eliminate the shorty all in.

So 15% of the time you're called in two spots, by a 15% hand range and a 100% hand range. 63.7% of the time you get called by a 75% hand range, and 21.2% of the time you don't get called. So let's figure out the equities:

vs two opponents (15% and 100%): 24.11% equity in the hand, 15% tourney equity if you win. So (.2411 * .15) = 3.6% tourney equity after this hand

vs one opponent (75%): 46% equity in the hand, 11.6% tourney equity if you win. (.26 * .116) = 3% tourney equity.

When they both fold: 9% tourney equity

Now weighting them:
.15 * .036 = 0.5%
.637 * .03 = 1.9%
.212 * .09 = 1.9%

Add em up and you get 4.3% equity vs 5.6% equity if you fold.

That took a little while [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So I'm not going to do it for a different call range for the BB. But as you can see, they'll both have to be playing a bit tighter for a push to be +EV.

[FlyWf]

I think you're forgetting how often some idiot openlimps at the 22s. You get 3 more hands but only 1 that you can be sure to be first to act. You can wait and race with an average hand in the BB, but you might get a multiway pot and you obviously have no FE.

Also, I think you guys are overestimating how loose the blinds will be here. The SB will want a decent hand to call here, and the BB will make some incorrect folds. I guarantee that with more confidence than Jukel can guarantee getting a better hand by the blinds.

At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

[45suited]

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At the risk of sounding clueless, is there any way to predict the EV of waiting to push later? I mean, even if the EV of pushing now with J8o is marginal or slightly negative, I would think the EV of pushing later against more potential callers (albeit with the possibility of two better cards) may be worse.

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Honestly guys, as bad as this situation is, I actually would feel 'lucky' that I had the chance to open push this hand from the button.