Turn betting

[Chris Daddy Cool]

15/30 at bellagio

table precieves me and bakkubakku and GoT as gambling asians when that was probably our true image before, but we have been playing reasonably since then and are definitely playing seriously.

bakkubakku openraises in the hijack. i 3-bet in the co with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. a decent player (probably the 4th best player at the table behind bakkubakku, myself and GoT) 4-bets from the SB. bb gets out of the way. bakkubakku calls. I call.

Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets. bakkubakku raises. i 3-bet. SB 4-bets. bakkubakku calls. I 5-bet cap and they call. at this point i'm pretty sure i am up against a couple of overpairs and i am capping for value.

only two hands i do not want to be up against and that is KK and TT. TT is not likely because SB does NOT 4-bet TT out of the blinds. and bakkubakku would have 5-bet cap preflop with KK and probably 5-bet the flop with that too, as well as TT, unless he was going to wait till the turn to pop. i am assuming he has QQ or JJ at this point and the SB has AA-JJ too.

Turn is a complete blank. 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and its checked to me.

On purely EV terms this is an easy check.

In the perfect scenerio I am up against AA and QQ with no hearts in their hands which puts my equity in this spot at exactly .333. so if i bet this turn it is exactly a zero-EV decision.

if you knew their hands to be exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and/or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would you bet this turn and why?

also, assuming that i knew that 5 betting the flop would have the turn checked to me, is 5 betting the flop even worth it?

[bigalt]

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if you knew their hands to be exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and/or Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] would you bet this turn and why?


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I don't like a turn bet here. Though I know bakkubakku about as well as SB i think there's a chance JJ is folding. I think there is also a chance that SB thinks you have a flush draw and could see the opportunity to make a move and try to knock out bakku.

Though the chances of either of those two aren't great, it does't take too much to knock the EV from 0 to -. And I can't see any benefits, because you don't really care about a free showdown UI, do you?

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also, assuming that i knew that 5 betting the flop would have the turn checked to me, is 5 betting the flop even worth it?

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hell yeah!

[Nick C]

Hmm. Well, in your perfect scenario, if you check, you may do better on the river on a king or a ten (5 cards), but you'll probably hurt your action on a heart (9 cards). So that seems to argue for betting. Like bigalt points out, though, there is some risk of losing JJ or even getting checkraised and paying 2 BBs to go to the river, heads-up. So I'm not sure what's best.

In a non-perfect scenario where we don't know you have 1/3 equity, I like a check.

Capping the flop seems good to me, perfect scenario or not, but I do see that making that cap could hurt your turn action if you improve. SB may fear a heart or another ten no matter what you do, but once you've capped the flop, you have given him an excuse to check the turn.

[sean c]

Why would bakku not five bet pre flop with the range your giving him?

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Hmm. Well, in your perfect scenario, if you check, you may do better on the river on a king or a ten (5 cards), but you'll probably hurt your action on a heart (9 cards). So that seems to argue for betting. Like bigalt points out, though, there is some risk of losing JJ or even getting checkraised and paying 2 BBs to go to the river, heads-up. So I'm not sure what's best.

In a non-perfect scenario where we don't know you have 1/3 equity, I like a check.

Capping the flop seems good to me, perfect scenario or not, but I do see that making that cap could hurt your turn action if you improve. SB may fear a heart or another ten no matter what you do, but once you've capped the flop, you have given him an excuse to check the turn.

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Hey Nick I'm really interested in how you think the action is going to go on a river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a river 10, depending on whether we bet or check the turn (assuming we are facing AA and QQ).

At first glance I was kind of thinking that on the turn we are either getting c/r or these guys are in call down mode, so that betting the turn really only has a downside without really changing the river action.

I really don't think about these type of things well though so just wanted you to elaborate. Thanks.

[nfscreech]

I'd bet.

2 of your heart outs will give you a lot more action on the river if you bet.

[TStoneMBD]

i think that betting the turn is a mistake but its close depending upon your thoughts. if you check the turn and miss the river you can easily fold to a river bet. if for whatever reason you felt you need to make it to showdown then betting the turn has merits but only if you feel that you are not in risk of being checkraised by an overpair. if you think an overpair will checkcall this turn then you extract another bet when your flush connects when the opponent would have went check-call instead.

capping this flop shows immediate value with your 11-14 outter. the only problem with capping however is that when you connect to your flush you will only extract 1 bet when you are checked to when you would have extracted 2 by raising. you succeeded in getting yourself a free card and in this situation i think capping is ultimately correct.

[Nick C]

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Hmm. Well, in your perfect scenario, if you check, you may do better on the river on a king or a ten (5 cards), but you'll probably hurt your action on a heart (9 cards). So that seems to argue for betting. Like bigalt points out, though, there is some risk of losing JJ or even getting checkraised and paying 2 BBs to go to the river, heads-up. So I'm not sure what's best.

In a non-perfect scenario where we don't know you have 1/3 equity, I like a check.

Capping the flop seems good to me, perfect scenario or not, but I do see that making that cap could hurt your turn action if you improve. SB may fear a heart or another ten no matter what you do, but once you've capped the flop, you have given him an excuse to check the turn.

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Hey Nick I'm really interested in how you think the action is going to go on a river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a river 10, depending on whether we bet or check the turn (assuming we are facing AA and QQ).

At first glance I was kind of thinking that on the turn we are either getting c/r or these guys are in call down mode, so that betting the turn really only has a downside without really changing the river action.

I really don't think about these type of things well though so just wanted you to elaborate. Thanks.

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Actually, I'm thinking maybe I overestimated how much the turn decision affects the river action.

My idea was that if Hero checks the turn, he pretty much gives away that he has a flush draw. So he won't get bet into on the river on a heart. But when the turn goes bet, call, call, which is what we're hoping for, Hero won't get bet into on the river very often anyway. I guess one question is whether, after a turn check behind, someone (with, say, JJ) who would have called the river will now check-fold on a heart instead. I don't know the answer to that.

Someone pointed out that Hero will get more action on a heart that gives someone else a set if Hero doesn't check the turn, and I agree with that.

[DeathDonkey]

Say someone is offering 99:1 the flop will come all paint, do you take it? Do you offer it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Personally I like checking here because I'd prefer people fold to my turn bets since I rarely have it in the future.

-DeathDonkey

[flopmonster]

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I'd bet.

2 of your heart outs will give you a lot more action on the river if you bet.

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