Willfull suspension of disbelief as it pertains to river play

[Knockwurst]

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Okay, time for me to school some folks.


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I like very much schooling, and you speak with much authority.

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News flash: He just about never has a 4 here. Your hand is good >90% of the time IMO.


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What is the basis for your assumptions that he "just about never has a 4 here" and that our hand is good ">90% of the time" here? I understand it's your opinion, but you make it seem like this is a given without need for further explanation.

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Button has a propensity to call, I want him to call 2 cold some % of the time. I also want the donk to bluff 3-bet sometimes, or 3-bet his weaker hand like an idiot.


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What % of the time is the player behind us going to call 2 cold with a worse hand? Even if he is a calling station and will call with a K (and sometimes less), I think the times he calls two cold with a K or worse is less than those times when he calls (or even raises) with a better hand. This is the one problem with fizzle's interesting mathematical analysis -- he does not provide for those times when the player behind us has us beat.

I also think that those times when the original bettor three bets a worse hand is very low, and lower than those times when he is holding a 4.

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The overcall isn't guarantee and has a value of less than one BB. The raise is worth more than 1 BB.


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I agree that the overcall from the player behind us is not guaranteed, but don't we have to consider the 1 BB already put in by the original bettor so that the overcall is greater than 1 BB if one considers those times when the player behind us calls with a worse hand.

Also I don't agree that the raise necessarily has a value of more than 1 BB when taking into consideration those times when the player behind us calls (or raises) with a better hand along with those times where the original bettor does.

IMO, this seems like one of those times where the liklihood that you will lose two bets is higher than those times when you win more than two bets so that a call is the best play.

I'm not saying your wrong, but before taking your opinion of the correct play as fact, I'd like a little deeper knowledge of your underlying assumptions.

Simple enough? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]