Pot Equity

[Jim Morgan]

I really like this idea of calculating the pot equity in the way you present it. However, I think it is merely a starting point. For example, you assume that making the flush and pairing the board is valueless. I think that is clearly an inferior assumption. My personal guess is that making such flushes is closer to neutral. You will have to pay off some river bets, but you will also win some chips sometimes. In essence, you would consider the deck to have only 42 remaining cards instead of 44 for the purposes of calculating your pot equity.

What I would really like to know how to do is to get this sort of thing tied into a simulation. That would give us precise numbers on how a paired flush card affects our equity and maybe some idea of how much the scoop potential adds to our equity.

It might also be nice to convert these numbers into pot odds. With your assumptions, the required pot odds (implied) are approximately 11.5 to 1. This is a far more useful number for actual play, since we can count the pot and know if it really is big enough to chase.

Jim M

[pipes]

Binions, great stuff!

I'd be interested in seeing some numbers for a backdoor nut flush draw as well as a gutshot straight draw to the nuts.

Sometimes you may have a combination of backdoor draws/gutshots. Would be great to be able to add up the pot equity percentages.

Also if you divulged some of the specifics behind the math maybe some people could help double check.