super push

[wdeadwyler]

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Is it more plus ev to take the coinflip on the flop with the dead money or to get your stack in on the turn or river when villain is drawing dead (assume deeper stacks)

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Hero is likely anywhere from 52%-56% to win(maybe 50/50 against AA). Taking the pot after the push would be nice, but if it all goes in you're definately getting paid off if you connect, where as villian may get away from his hand if a heart comes on the turn. +EV by definition means that you are a favorite - you expect positive value, you can call 52-56 a coin flip, but it's of course not. While it's true that in small stakes you can wait for bigger advantages, you don't have to push small edges at these limits, but it's still the correct play no matter how you look at it.

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We are a 44 dog against a set, and abouta 55 fave against an overpair. We are about a 35% dog against a bigger flush, just to be nitpicky.

Now, coinflipping is plus ev, but is it not more plus EV to NOT lose our stacks when we miss and still stack when we hit?

[teamdonkey]

i think about these things to, and have come to the conclusion its very opponent/situation dependant.

in this case: Hero is in position and villain sucks at betting. This is the best case scenario for just calling and seeing a cheap turn/river. Villain wont put you all in on the turn, meaning you save some of your stack when you don't hit. With position on him extracting the rest of his stack when you do hit shouldn't be hard. Only negative i see here is 4 of your outs (aces) may scare his overpair away.

[cardsharkk04]

You are favored a against anything but a set, so yea its a good play. (But you only have 15 outs)

[dbitel]

Although this play is standard...I'm wondering if it should be.

I see your opponent's range as AA, KK, QQ, AQ and AhKh, hell he could even have AhQh or KhQh.

Your 1st raise on the flop is obviously correct, as opponent could have any 2cards and be c-betting, so you have folding equity. After his reraise though...I suggest that you have very little folding equity and are not in a too strong situation:

Best case sinario, he has KK, no heart and all your 15 outs are good, and you're about a coinflip, however, there are a lot of hands in his range that have you crushed (against AhQh, you have only 7 outs, and he still then has redraw outs).

So, maybe pushing ISN'T best, but having said that, calling and missing on the turn sucks!

Also, I dont really like calling this hand from quite early position preflop, but we'll put that down to the liquid!

[iash]

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where do you get all 17 outs from?

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I can't count. HUGE leak in my game.. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[iash]

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Only negative i see here is 4 of your outs (aces) may scare his overpair away.

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I think this makes a great case for pushing. Not only will an Ace scare him, but a heart might as well.

I think we see Villian have AQ KQ QJ a lot here, and I don't want to give him a chance to get away from this hand when I hit the turn.