What are the odds?

[Karmadog]

What are the odds you will lose a 6-1 and 22-1 in a row?

I guess some players are professional fortune tellers because they sure aren't good poker players. Whee! Let's call off half our stack even though any good player would know you're beat!!

[SunOfBeach]

a 6:1 has a probability of 6/7 of not coming in. a 22:1 has a 22/23 probability of not coming in. the probability that neither comes in is (6/7)*(22/23) = 132/161 ~ 82%.

my guess is that you misstated these, and were the favorite in each case... hence there was only about an 18% youd get sucked out on both of these.

[Karmadog]

[ QUOTE ]
a 6:1 has a probability of 6/7 of not coming in. a 22:1 has a 22/23 probability of not coming in. the probability that neither comes in is (6/7)*(22/23) = 132/161 ~ 82%.

my guess is that you misstated these, and were the favorite in each case... hence there was only about an 18% youd get sucked out on both of these.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, 6-1 and 22-1 favorite of course. Having a bad week and was just venting for the most part. I do know that my chances of losing both in a row are lower than 5% though. How can your chances of losing go up hitting continuous longshots in a row?

I got the probability of losing both to be 0.006 or 0.6%.

Here's how i did it

(1/7)*(1/23)= 0.006211

Pretty damn sure that is the finally probability.

But remember this if the small percentages never hit then they wouldn't exist. It just sucks that the small percentages happen to land on us sometimes.

[SunOfBeach]

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I do know that my chances of losing both in a row are lower than 5% though.

[/ QUOTE ]

the sucked out chance is even much worse than 5%: 1/23*1/7 < 1%. you had some bad beats, my friend...

If memory serves it's 132-1. 6/1 x 22/1 = 132/1

Bill

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
If memory serves it's 132-1. 6/1 x 22/1 = 132/1

[/ QUOTE ]

You multiply probabilities, not odds. 6-1 is 1/7 and 22-1 is 1/23, so 1/7 * 1/23 = 1/161 = 160-1.

I thought he was asking for odds, Hence the title "What are the odds?". Maybe I have this wrong as I'm new at it, but aren't the odds of drawing the ace of spades from a full deck 52-1 not 51-1 or drawing any spade 52-13(4-1) not 39-13(3-1).

[BruceZ]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought he was asking for odds, Hence the title "What are the odds?".

[/ QUOTE ]

He was. To compute the odds, you must convert the odds to probabilities (fractions), multiply the probabilities, and then convert back to odds, as I did. You cannot multiply the odds directly.


[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I have this wrong as I'm new at it, but aren't the odds of drawing the ace of spades from a full deck 52-1 not 51-1

[/ QUOTE ]

No, the odds are 51-1. There are 51 non-As to 1 As. Odds against are always defined as losers:winners. The probability is 1 in 52 or 1/52.


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or drawing any spade 52-13(4-1) not 39-13(3-1).

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds are 39-13 or 3-1. The probability is 1 in 4 or 1/4.

Thanks Bruce. I think I'm starting to understand it now. Is there a good book to read on this subject? My misinformation could be very costly.

Bill