Decision time on the turn - do i fold 2 pair?

#1 10-05-2005, 01:19 PM

Be really interested on what you think of my play here - especially what you would do on the turn.

UTG was fishy - 33/2/0.5 - 270 hands
MP3 was average at best 16/6/1.6 - 560 hands

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 caps, Button calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (16.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 3-bets, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 raises, Hero ?

TheHammer24 · #2 10-05-2005, 01:56 PM

Yuck. It could very well have been AA v KK, but the KK fell. You banking on a lot that villians don't have TT or KK. I still want to show thid down so BAD! But i think I have to fold.

alul · #3 10-05-2005, 02:24 PM

Looks like a set of kings or tens to me. I guess it's a fold.

stoli · #4 10-05-2005, 02:29 PM

You got lucky on the flop here and made two pair but your stats at the top show that the raiser is tight, so i'm not sure how much i like this call pre-flop.

That aside on the turn you find yourself in a large pot with two pair. After reading the ed miller posts about folding too often, I think I'd probably try and call this down for as cheap as possible. You are not going to get these two out of the pot with a raise and you may be far behind. That said, there is a chance you are up against aa and ak or kq, or something like that. You do have a couple of out if someone has KK, TT, or KK. But the bottom line is this pot is huge now and you do have a piece. Try and win the pot, it may cost you a couple of bets, folding costs you the pot. I'd rather be wrong and lose a couple of bets than the pot.

Webster · #5 10-05-2005, 02:48 PM

I'm not sure you have the outs. You have 4 outs but it's going to cost you probebly 4 Big Bets to see the river. With only 14 big bets in there you are paying a big price.

UTG obviously is not going to back down with his pair of tens and MP3 is still strong with his pocket aces or Kings.

you're in a world of hurt. MP3 does not have any of those cards and UTG limped in BUT normally is passive hmmmmmm! so he might have a set??

hmmmmmm - in the battle I might fold but looking at the competition. . . . . .

#6 10-05-2005, 03:04 PM

Both men had AA.

How did I have a couple of outs if someone had a set?!?!

Either way, a sickening feeling when a 22BB pot was split.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

#7 10-05-2005, 03:21 PM

Few people will 3-bet or cap with anything other than AA, KK, QQ, or AK. You beat 3 of those and lose to 1. AA and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] will happily pump away at that board. Someone could very well have KK, but you have to at least call down in this giant pot.

#8 10-05-2005, 03:49 PM

So what on earth did they 3 bet and cap the flop with? I dont see it being AK. So that leaves the big pairs.

Now UTG bets when a King hits the turn, so he's not scared of it. He has AA or KK. The other one raises, knowing he knows this. So he very likely must have KK or TT.

Do other people agree with why I folded this?

btw - no way I thought to put them both on AA.

#9 10-05-2005, 03:56 PM

Based on the action I think a fold is probably ok. I think I would have lead the turn though, then if it goes raise reraise I can find a fold a lot easier.

Fat Nicky · #10 10-05-2005, 04:03 PM

I don't mind the first pre-flop call, but I don't like the 2nd one where it's 2 cold back to you. Your reverse implied odd suck.

I would also fold the turn, we are getting caught between a ton of betting and raising and it doesn't look like we have the best hand. we might even be drawing dead if they have a set of 10s or Ks.

This is exactly why we need to fold pre-flop for 2 more bets, so we don't get into this raising war.