A new theory on Negraneau challenge matches

[pokergripes]

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So now you have a very smart and skilled player who's getting a chance to play the best at their best games... imagine what he can learn from this...

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I'm doing my best to imagine and all I can imagine is "damn, there must have been a way to learn whatever it is I'm learning for less than half a million bucks a pop."

I like your enthusiasm though. It sounds like nothing daniel does could ever be -EV.

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There is a surprising amount of truth in your last sentence IMO...I believe there are, in fact, a handful of "personal poker brands" forming around a few of these guys (PH is another example), where the promotional value for their "personal brands" will outweigh pretty much any negative expectation they could possibly face in a poker game.

For example, assume (just for sake of illustration) that DN was a 55-45 underdog in each of these HU challenges from a EV perspective (setting aside variance relative to his bank roll, which presumably he took into account in setting the $500k dollar amount, and he would know how deep he is).

Next, assume that he's getting some money from the Wynn in a promotional deal (which seems likely from all the discussion), even if it's not $3 mil per year, or over a very small number of years. Say it's $300k per year, again just for illustration. But I think you've also got to assume that the Wynn wouldn't enter into that kind of deal without a termination right of some kind relating to quality of his services, or some specified set of things he has to do and/or achieve, or both. So, it seems safe to assume that him just quietly sitting in the 10-20 blind nlh game, or the 40-80 lhe game, isn't going to cut it for him to pick up that e.g. $300k per year of "free money" (in the sense that it's like a free roll tourney, not that his time is free).

Now, assume that he can pick up meaningful incremental revenues from website advertising. Hard to quantify, but presumably these guys are getting enough money out of it to make it worth their while to bother working out advertising deals, etc.

And that's before you even get to the question of whether he can make huge money by, e.g., owning a piece of a poker website that gets bought up in the future at a big multiple, or from writing books, or becoming a tv announcer for the ever-increasing number of media channels adding poker, etc.

How -EV would he possibly have to be in the HU games to make him -EV in the "meta game" (if you will) of the "DN brand"?

[Tom Martell]

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Where is your proof he bulit his bankroll playing live limit holdem? i believe this is a fabrication. i content he had nothing playing live and was in debt to friends. Until he pulled off these tournies in last couple years. You are just talking but not showing or saying anything.

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You contend that he was in debt and broke. Do you have any evidence of this? It is nice to be able to sit back and throw out these unsupported statements, while demanding your opposition supply documentation. Perhaps that should apply to you as well?

A pissing contest over who does better at a given limit is also pointless, as you arent going to be able to prove to anyone here what your winrate is. I can claim a 4 BB/100 winrate at 15/30 until I am blue in the face and it isnt going to accomplish anything. And having your lackey Vince chime in to say you are god's gift to 15/30 holdem is unconvincing...

[pokergripes]

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Howard, in your immediately prior response to Tom you wrote:

"I have no intention of debating Vince over this point, or mocking whatever response he chooses to make."



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"What happened?"

Should be obvious. Howard heard the truth and couldn't handle it.

Vince

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Now, since you asked (sort of), I've got to respond... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

No Vince, I don't think that's what happened--Rather, I think you successfully "trolled" with a reasonable-sounding-yet-infuriatingly-incorrect response to his OP (see his previously posted definition of "troll" to verify the accuracy of my usage), and hooked yourself a Treesong with that troll bait... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Which, given the subject matter of the original exchange, was actually quite an accomplishment...kudos! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Tom Martell]

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this place is an internet message board. that's it.

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How dare you trivialize Vince's life work. This board gives him a reason to wake up every morning and troll over to his computer. The lives of millions hinges on this board and his work here. It is a good, noble contribution he is making to his fellow man, enriching our lives with his tireless efforts.

If it wasn't for 2+2, Vince would be forced to go back and post endlessly about what a egomaniac loser Paul Phillips is. We can't have that happen.[/sarcasm]

[pokergripes]

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Where is your proof he bulit his bankroll playing live limit holdem? i believe this is a fabrication. i content he had nothing playing live and was in debt to friends. Until he pulled off these tournies in last couple years. You are just talking but not showing or saying anything.

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You contend that he was in debt and broke. Do you have any evidence of this? It is nice to be able to sit back and throw out these unsupported statements, while demanding your opposition supply documentation. Perhaps that should apply to you as well?

A pissing contest over who does better at a given limit is also pointless, as you arent going to be able to prove to anyone here what your winrate is. I can claim a 4 BB/100 winrate at 15/30 until I am blue in the face and it isnt going to accomplish anything. And having your lackey Vince chime in to say you are god's gift to 15/30 holdem is unconvincing...

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Maybe Smoothcall can get DN to come play the 15-30 lhe with him? Oh, wait...DN tips a black chip for each drink, so he probably won't be prepared to play that low, since it would be hard to overcome that -3.3 bb/drink burn rate playing downstairs... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Tom Martell]

You got him Vince! You sunk his battleship. Game, set, match.

[pokergripes]

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this place is an internet message board. that's it.

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How dare you trivialize Vince's life work. This board gives him a reason to wake up every morning and troll over to his computer. The lives of millions hinges on this board and his work here. It is a good, noble contribution he is making to his fellow man, enriching our lives with his tireless efforts. [/sarcasm]

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lol!

This one actually had me laughing even prior to reaching the "[/sarcasm]" at the end, which I assume was inserted to prevent a "Thanks very much!" response from Vince, and thus makes it even better... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, one small place I have to differ with you--Based upon the excellent definition that Howard posted, I'm not sure that "troll over to his computer" is actually a preferred usage of the term (but there's always room for growth...)

[Tom Martell]

Vince Letroll is very good at making this facially neutral, non-flame posts that incite flame wars by misrepresenting reality to such an absurd degree that people feel compelled to respond.

At least it has been good for a few hours of entertainment for me.

[Tom Martell]

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Then he claimed that calling someone a troll is not an insult. Well then what is it?

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A factual label.

[Tom Martell]

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Vince/Smoothcall

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You are now where you belong among the not worthy of reading posters. I ignore you!

Vince

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For not including Smoothcall's title of "his excellence the lordship of the 15/30 table"?