Getting Murdered. Any Advice?

[Pokerho]

After posting far and away my best month in August, I have just been getting killed in September. July was my only losing month (down $15 or so) since I started keeping track in February.

I don't think my play has changed substantially, except that there have been a few pots that I've had the "aww **** it" mentality. I think I've done a good job of quitting when I do that, and taking a break for at least a few hours, and sometimes the rest of the day.

It seems like I've been getting out drawn on bad beats more than usual, and failing to catch flushes and straights less than I should when the odds were good to chase them. And also, I've lost at least two buyins to trips when I flop TPTK or even two pair.

But I wonder, am I just remembering the unlucky stuff, and not noticing my bad play?

Any advice?

[jon_1van]

MM once showed that it is possible to play Limit holdem for 1000 hours at the "expert level" and still be down due to varience (read luck).

I think No Limit has a higher varience than limit.

[cagedman]

Few questions first:

a) What games are you playing?

b) How big is your downswing (in $ or BB).

[Pokerho]

I'm playing $25 NL at party. My account was at $450 two weeks ago, and now is at ~$260. In between all of that, I threw in about 200 hands of 6 Max $25 NL, which I came away up $6 from.

I had a string of about 5 sessions, all under 50 hands, where I lost at least $20. Not much better since then, but a few winning sessions here and there.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
MM once showed that it is possible to play Limit holdem for 1000 hours at the "expert level" and still be down due to varience (read luck).

[/ QUOTE ]

yes

[ QUOTE ]
I think No Limit has a higher varience than limit

[/ QUOTE ]

no




we all go through dry spells, one surefire way to break a slump or at least slow one down is to tighten up. most often people run cold because they were previously running hot and now see value in hands which really have -EV. play great cards and you'll have a hard time staying in the red.

fim

[Wayfare]

Are you making lots of plays that go over peoples' heads?

That's the fastest way to lose money on those tables. Also, I find that trying to force in profits at short sessions almost invariably leads to losses.

[Pokerho]

[ QUOTE ]
most often people run cold because they were previously running hot and now see value in hands which really have -EV. play great cards and you'll have a hard time staying in the red.

fim

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm... that could very easily be part of the problem. I'll give it a shot.

I do find that I seem to be bluffing too much. I'll raise in LP with AQ, get two or three callers, completely miss the flop and bet the pot when it's checked to me. That's probably a decent play much of the time, but I think I'm doing it EVERY time. I guess I just got in the habit of doing it because it so often works. But then, I was doing that before my bad streak, I think.

[Pokerho]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you making lots of plays that go over peoples' heads?

That's the fastest way to lose money on those tables. Also, I find that trying to force in profits at short sessions almost invariably leads to losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I'm not sure I'm capable of that, but, I have come to the conclusion that it's a bad idea to try to bluff people who will call with anything.

As far as short sessions, I generally only play one table and for an hour at most. Even then, if after 20-30 hands I see more than 2 or 3 players at the table who I consider may be competent, I go looking for a dumber table. Occasionally, if I have an afternoon to burn, I'll get in 150 hands at one table, but it's for more likely that I'm only at the table for 40.

[Cannes]

With three callers you should never make a pot sized bet when missing the flop with AQ, HU you should do it most of the time, with two callers you should do it sometimes if you have reads on the opponents as being weak

[fimbulwinter]

as i am a pretty nutzo raiser 6 handed I frequently find myself in such a position, here's how i deal with it.

note: this assumes all vanilla conditions, ie unknown opponents, you hold AK/AQ/AJ and the board is all unders with 2-3 callers. 4+ i never bet except for value, HU i'm a psycho.

what you should consider when thinking of whether to bet is if your outs are live/someone could be slowplaying. if the flop is uncoordinated and rainbow, then i check as an A,K,Q etc. on the turn will easily win it for me and there's no reason for someone with a low pocket pair or someone who hit part of a suited connector to believe me as having an overpair when i bet out (since i bet the flop so frequently anyway). if the board is scary, i bet, if i get raised by a sane player, i fold. your outs need not be pair outs (if you hold AK on a JT4 board, you probably have 10 outs, and you surely have 4 great outs.)

raising in late position often gives you the option of taking a free card but risking a checkraise. very often you will have the best hand, or the board will be scary enough that you'll take it off middle/bottom pair. evaluate whether that card is more likely to help you or them and go from there.

fim

PS- this kind of approach does a pretty good job of randomizing your play while still getting you paid off and gives you just enough credit to still effectively semi-bluff if you flop something like 9TJ when you hold AQ.