Is getting away ever an option

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet the flop and are then raised on the turn you'd be getting 10-1 with 5 outs against all but TT, 77 and 55. given our opponent's tight pfr standards and the T in my hand, I think a set is unlikely and folding might not be so great.

[/ QUOTE ]

against AT/KT/QT you have only three outs, and if he is raising these hands will make up a significant part of his range.

[alta_chuttes]

guy has a 7 pfr, so assuuming that is accurate, does he raise any of these hands 3 off the button?

99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo is almost 8% of his hands, an eh is probaably somehwta position sensitive, no?

[RicktheRuler]

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3bet the flop, lead the turn is my standard line.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold to a raise on the turn and prolly check/call most rivers.

[einbert]

Well let's look at his range of hands throughout the hand.

When he raises preflop from that position, he's bound to have a pretty good hand given his 7% PFR. So a range might be something like AJ+, KTs+, 77+, and then occasionally he might be raising a JTs or even 44 here but usually his hand will be quite strong.

When you bet into him on that flop, most players will raise you with less than an overpair. Many players will raise AK there for a free card, 88-99 because it's likely they have the best hand, and of course a T with a good kicker or an overpair.

EDIT: Tbe reason I don't really like a flop three-bet against this particular player is it creates quite a large pot, which will both give him the pot odds to draw to overcards on fourth street and cause us to pay off more bets on the turn and river when he has a hand that beats us because of our increased effective odds.

I don't mind just calling the raise on the flop, but against this kind of player I really like betting out on the turn. If he raises you you will be getting 9-1 but in all you can probably correctly fold because of the possibility of his holding 77-99 (the unfortunate thing about this is that he's more likely to just call with the hands you're in bad shape against like QT-AT and raise with the hands you are drawing more live against, QQ-AA--but he'll also raise with 77, TT, and JJ all of which you are drawing dead or nearly dead against). If he were planning on taking a free card with his AK his plan will be foiled, and if he raised you on the flop with 88 or 99 he will likely go into calldown mode. He'll also probably just call down with JT-AT, but that's okay because he was going to bet the turn and river with those hands anyway, so you lose the same amount against them. An additional benefit of betting the turn is that he might decide to call both the turn and river with an unimproved AK for whatever reason, which would be great for you.

This hand is a great example of why passive play is -EV (which in turn allows us to take advantage of the EV they are giving up). Against an aggressive player that would raise the turn with a wider range of hands the hand would be much more difficult to play, and we would be forced to give them a free card more frequently or fold the best hand to their semibluff or bluff raise quite frequently. Against this passive player who will probably only call us down with a hand like AT or 88 we are able to save several nice chunks of value.

[afk]

Against someone who doesn't raise that much preflop like this guy (I'm counting on those numbers being an accurate representation of his play) I usually fold preflop. He will often have you dominated or just flat out beat by a big pair. I know there's a lot of money in the pot but I can't see you having much of a chance here most of the time. What do other people do preflop here?

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
What do other people do preflop here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel like pot odds are pretty much the overwhelming consideration here. That and we are closing the action, I can't really see folding this hand preflop.

[afk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do other people do preflop here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel like pot odds are pretty much the overwhelming consideration here. That and we are closing the action, I can't really see folding this hand preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very possible I need to loosen up in spots like this (I feel I play too tight).

[alta_chuttes]

[ QUOTE ]
When he raises preflop from that position, he's bound to have a pretty good hand given his 7% PFR. So a range might be something like AJ+, KTs+, 77+, and then occasionally he might be raising a JTs or even 44 here but usually his hand will be quite strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an enourmously over-generous hand range, assuming the 7% pfr is accurate.

I'm really liking the bet and fold to a raise in terms of it being a reliable indicator of his hand's stregth, but 9-1 with an almost certain river check-raise when we improve is nice.



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MATHS:


7% is like 99+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs, and this is probably close to accurate becuase he is likely somewhat position sensitive and raises less from the blinds and UTG and more from the CO or Button.

If he raises the turn, there are 6 ways for him to have AA-QQ, 3 ways to have JJ, 2 ways to have ATs.

18 hands - 5 outs.

3 hands - 2 outs

2 hands - 3 outs.

(90 + 6 + 6)/23

102/23 = 4.4 average outs.

But I lose 2 bets when we catcha J v JJ (maybe 3 bets) and Ilose 2 bets (maybe 3 bets) when I catch a T v AT.

So call flop raise and donkbet/fold turn looks good.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do other people do preflop here?

[/ QUOTE ]
I feel like pot odds are pretty much the overwhelming consideration here. That and we are closing the action, I can't really see folding this hand preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

In 10-handed, SSH recommends folding preflop because of the spectre of dominiation. Given we have a PFR followed by a cold call, I'm putting both players on bigger hands than if it was a limp followed by a raise. Add to that the SB calling, and I've got to wonder if both my T and J are dominated.

Granted 6-max is looser, but there's just not any flop that you'll feel good about barring two pair/trips/straight. Top pair just won't mean much.

[Jerkass333]

[ QUOTE ]
7% is like 99+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs, and this is probably close to accurate becuase he is likely somewhat position sensitive and raises less from the blinds and UTG and more from the CO or Button.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that his 7% pfr is the top 7% of his hands which is not true fairly often. There are plenty of players with low pfr who will raise weaker hands and slowplay their big ones preflop.