Big stack, out of position

[locutus2002]

8 handed. KJs, AJ, AT, and others.

I think hero has alot of FE especially after showing his stack to MP2, I think many of the pairs will fold.

I think you're wrong, but there is so much dead money in the pot that hero only has to be ~40% in the hand to make it CEV neutral.

[Seadood228]

Hero folds?

You are in decent shape chipwise and IMO UTGs range of hands has you in bad shape. Even if you call and hit your hand you probably not going to get paid off, and there's still a good chance you'll be behind if you do hit. Out of position I don't like this hand, even with those odds. AQs might be worth a look though.


I guess if you think UTG+1 will release a hand to a reraise you can push, but given the information you've provided that doesn't seem likely.

I'd vote Fold/Call/Raise

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
I think hero has alot of FE especially after showing his stack to MP2, I think many of the pairs will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree here. Although OP didn't give us the exact stage of the tourney, I think it's safe to say that it's pretty deep. What hands do you think UTG will raise pf, then fold to a reraise getting monster odds? Especially to a big stack reraise?

[locutus2002]

I don't much care if UTG calls or folds as hero is ahead of the range.

It's impossible to know without a better feel for UTG, and what he thought of hero, but there are some hands he will fold. I myself might fold KJ, AT, 88--, of course it depends on the players.

i dont like to apply the squeeze with that hand because i generally do it when my hand is trash so that if i get a call unless i hit the flop hard ,then im done.and i do his the flop hard no one would suspect it.
but the idea is that so after the move you will not lose more chips,with a hand like AQ ,what would you do if you got a flop like Q89 or AT7 ???it will be very hard not let hands like that go after the flop.
as for the best play here i would either fold or flat call.
you have position on both so a call would be better i think.

[bruce]

My first reaction to your hand is to fold. I have read the responses and this further confirms folding. I don't think a squeeze is a good idead unless initial raiser is on a steal.
How online, can you come to this conclusion, I have no idea?
I don't like calling b/c your oop and aq isn't that great a hand. Unless you flop a monster it's tough to play aq aggressively if you flop only top pair. I'd sit this one out and next hand with your big stack you have the button.
Why risk losing half your stack with a borderline hand?

Bruce

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't much care if UTG calls or folds as hero is ahead of the range.


[/ QUOTE ]

You keep on saying that... but it's just not true, UTG hasn't done anything out of the ordinary, so i don't see how you can put an UTG raise on much less than AJs+,99+... a range that he is behind.

Even if you include some marginal holdings (AJo ATs) i still think he'd be ahead. (I'd check now, but i'm inbetween classes at school)

[bruce]

If you call u whiff on the flop 2/3 of the time and u have two
opponents behind you. I figure one has a pocket pair so if small cards come I think you'll have a difficult time making a play at the pot. aq doesn't play that well against two opponents, esp. if one has a pair and the other has an ace.

If you play the hand I'd push trying to make it headsup. On a good day you'll be in a race or against AJ or better yet they both fold.

Bruce

[locutus2002]

Hero is getting an overlay in the pot if MP2 folds.

Would you fold if villain flipped up TT?

Let's do some quick math. We can get the facts from Fnurt, but it looks to be like there are ~16 people left, about 900,000 chips on our table so the average stack at the final table is going to be about 250,000 and have ~15XBB. Hero still has some chips to gather and should welcome a coinflip here.

[Exitonly]

No clearly if i saw he had TT i would take the flip considering the pot size already.. however we don't know he has TT.. he's as likely to have 99, TT, JJ as he is QQ, KK, AA ( well slightly more lightly for the 9's range cause we have a Q) add-in AQo, and AKo/AKs into his range, and i'm not so happy about pushing.

AQo isn't that strong vs his range here, if we're called, we're at best a coinflip and more likely we're dominated.

i realize we have to accumulate more but theres still a lot of time, we dont need to go and find situations where we're UNDERDOGS vs opponents range, when we don't have all that much FE.

I think a push would be marginally +cEV.. but still not the line i'm taking here. (as i think just folding, or calling would be more +EV)