TDL: Card ahead out of position

[randomstumbl]

Okay, the hand history I posted below is a perfect example of what I've seen happen a lot lately. To sum it up, you're a card ahead on the turn out of position and brick the draw. I think this is just a straight math question, but do you auto bet here? If not, what is factoring into your decision.

The problem, as I see it, is that it's easy for someone to make a jack low or better. Also, if they're on a one card draw, they'll still be ahead a lot of the time. Is there enough fold equity to make this play worthwhile?


Hand #5730089-10472 at Epsom ($1/$2 Triple Draw 2-7)
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Started at 17/May/05 01:05:30

AAAA is at seat 0 with $118.25.
BBBB is at seat 1 with $112.75.
CCCC is at seat 2 with $99.50.
Hero is at seat 4 with $47.25.
DDDD is at seat 5 with $175.50.
The button is at seat 2.

Hero posts the small blind of $.50.
DDDD posts the big blind of $1.

AAAA: -- -- -- -- --
BBBB: -- -- -- -- --
CCCC: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 7h 6h 2h 2s 6d
DDDD : -- -- -- -- --

First Round:

AAAA calls. BBBB folds. CCCC folds.
Hero raises to $2. DDDD folds. AAAA
calls.

Hero takes 2 cards. AAAA takes 2 cards.


AAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 7h 2s 6d 5s Jd

Second Round:

Hero bets $1. AAAA calls.

Hero takes 1 card. AAAA takes 2 cards.

AAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 7h 2s 6d 5s 6c

Third Round:

Hero bets $2. AAAA calls.

Hero takes 1 card. AAAA stands pat.

AAAA: -- -- -- -- --
Hero: 7h 2s 6d 5s Jc

Final Round:

Hero checks. AAAA checks.



Showdown:

Hero shows Jc 7h 6d 5s 2s.
Hero has J 7 6 5 2.
AAAA shows Ts 5d 4h 3s 2c.
AAAA has T 5 4 3 2.


Hand #5730089-10472 Summary:

$.50 is raked from a pot of $11.
AAAA wins $10.50 with T 5 4 3 2.
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