10/20 37s

jason_t · #1 12-19-2005, 04:20 AM

The pfr here is 16/10/.7 with wtsd = 28%. He seemed extremely weak/tight and that's why I took this line. I haven't done any math yet but my intuition is now telling me this might not be correct.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, I call, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
I bet, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
I bet, UTG calls, MP1 raises, CO folds, I call, UTG folds.

River: (13.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
I bet

wackjob · #2 12-19-2005, 04:27 AM

I'm definately 3-betting the turn and not waiting. I think you will get called by any pair, any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and you don't want to make it cheap for him to river a better flush.. he is not gonna fold.

SackUp · #3 12-19-2005, 05:09 AM

I agree with wackjob. I'm 3betting the turn. What was the reason for the call/donk line on the turn and river? You hoping for the overcall by utg? You obviously do not think you are behind if you are donking the river?

Are you calling a river raise?

I'd 3 bet the turn and not start to worry unless the turn is capped.

Looks like his QQ hit or he is raising KK or AA with his possible fd. Or JJ and 1010 are still possible. And AQ or KQ are also playing this way.

There is way too much out there not to 3 bet this turn.

jason_t · #4 12-19-2005, 06:53 PM

When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

SackUp · #5 12-19-2005, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

jason_t · #6 12-19-2005, 07:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it's the third guy that complicates the thinking and the math. It's probably best to just remember the Win Large Pots Immediately section from TOP, 3-bet and get on with it.

Trix · #7 12-19-2005, 05:17 AM

Think you are better off 3betting the turn though your line rocks when he has AK, but probably not enough to make up for missed bets vs AQ/KQ.

I like the flop bet, you can´t expect this guy to bet it for you and even when he raise, it will probably not limit the field too much considering the flop is pretty actionish.

CardSharpCook · #8 12-19-2005, 05:21 AM

3bet the turn. K:clubs

r A:clubs: have to call that. I assume you didn't 3bet for fear of scarring out UTG+1? Well, 3bet for above reason.

BigEndian · #9 12-19-2005, 09:40 AM

I agree, the flop is actionish. I would prefer to not be raised with only my flush outs being good.

- Jim

BigEndian · #10 12-19-2005, 09:39 AM

Check-call the flop. On a board like this, why are you betting out asking to pay more to try to hit your hand?

On the turn, jam it.

- Jim