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#1
12-14-2005, 08:44 PM
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Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
Atlanta +3 +117 or Atlanta +3.5 -110 can be found presently at Pinny.
These are outstanding opportunities as this matchup is tailor-made for the Falcons. Atlanta should be able to run very successfully against this Bears team in the cold particularly to the right, which will open up the Vick boot. And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense. DeAngelo Hall will match up favorably with Mushin Muhammad and neutralize their only semi-threat. This is a must-win for the Falcons and the Bears are in a QB controversy. Take Atlanta now at this price. If the price goes down because it looks like Vick might not play, buy more as the QB is not the reason the Falcons will win this game. I may have an over-under pick later. If anything, I'd lean on the over at 31 or 31.5. Edit: I also may have some good prop opportunities, particularly with Warrick Dunn. 
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#3
12-15-2005, 11:03 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.
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#4
12-15-2005, 11:04 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.
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#5
12-15-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing. [/ QUOTE ] Meaningless stat. They don't score.
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#6
12-15-2005, 11:19 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense? [/ QUOTE ] "Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right. Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing. [/ QUOTE ] Meaningless stat. They don't score. [/ QUOTE ] Dude, they don't give up points either! lol Where is this whole argument going....basically what you're saying is the Bears will have their usual flat offensive game (14-17 per game, even though they're facing a sub-par defense, and at home) but the Falcons are going to score enough on the Bears to lose by 3 or win. I really don't see this at all and think you're underestimating the Bear defense.
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#7
12-15-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears average 130 yards a game rushing are 7th in the NFL averageing 4.3 YPC and Thomas Jones is 10th in the NFL and 5th in the NFC in rushing with 1077 yards and he missed a game vs. San Fran. Plus, Kyle Orton is their QB they run the ball...alot. That is all they can do on offense. The only way to get the Bears to stop running is get a lead on them.
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#8
12-15-2005, 04:42 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving. [/ QUOTE ] The Bears average 130 yards a game rushing are 7th in the NFL averageing 4.3 YPC and Thomas Jones is 10th in the NFL and 5th in the NFC in rushing with 1077 yards and he missed a game vs. San Fran. Plus, Kyle Orton is their QB they run the ball...alot. That is all they can do on offense. The only way to get the Bears to stop running is get a lead on them. [/ QUOTE ] Bottom line for me here is, Atlanta hasn't shown the consistancy to make me believe strongly in their chances. If Vick's ribs are injured, that makes his questionable passing skills worse, on a bad weather day. If the Bears can focus on stopping the run.... The Bears' offense also inspires little faith. I don't plan on betting on this game; if forced to, I'd ride the Bears under train (10-3 ATU so far), but I haven't seen the latest line.
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#9
12-14-2005, 10:55 PM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense. [/ QUOTE ] ? Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.
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#10
12-15-2005, 10:47 AM
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Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense. [/ QUOTE ] ? Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily. [/ QUOTE ] Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.
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Hybrid Mode
