WCOOP 500 PLHE Bustout Hand

[Apathy]

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Why not? If one player check and the last player bets, you can check raise all in, why that play is not an option?

And it's not the only escenario possible.

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As an experiment why not pretend you checked and give us the action back to us as you would predict it based on what the other players had and your read on them. I know there is a lot of guesswork involve but it may be interesting (I think you likely only know one of the two villains holdings).

[MLG]

I think checking is a good play here. First it allows you to get away if there's a bet and a raise. Second it lets you put maximum pressure on JJ/QQ with a diamond although i doubt you get a fold from them anyway. You also might more realistically fold out hands that you want gone like AQ with the Q of diamonds. When you bet and are called and then raised I think you have too much hand to fold, so in goes the money.

[TheTimeIsUp]

Ok. A check/raise is definitley a different way to play this hand, but if we could, can we focus on how I played it, and if I can get away from it or not.

[MLG]

You have too much hand to fold here. I think there are too many situations which are beneficial for you. Basically either your hand has to be good now, or your flush draw has to be good for this play to be +EV. How often is that the case? Also how often is UTG+3 getting aggressive with a hand like 99 w/diamond. It would help to know their stack sizes. I'm also assuming that since these guys were in EP you will not be dealing with hands like 89s that tagged along and flopped a flush. Given that AA/KK are unlikely it seems that overs+flush draw are by far the most likely scenario, with the small possibility of AK/AQ flopping the nuts, and a smaller possibility of UTG+3 getting frisky with 77/88/99+diamond. I don't see how this can be a fold.

[Apathy]

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Ok. A check/raise is definitley a different way to play this hand, but if we could, can we focus on how I played it, and if I can get away from it or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK,

You raise PF and then make a smallish bet on a draw heavy board into two opponents who cold called before the flop and have previously been playing tight. The first one calls This could mean nice draw (two over plus diamond) or very possibly a made hand that has you almost dead which would almost certainly not raise. I think this is either nut flush or AxAd. It would help to know his stack size here but a hand like 88,99 seems unlikely as those should raise if they play.

The player in the last position now raises. I think a fair amount of strength has been shown in front of him so I think a non made hand is unlikely unless it is specifically AdKx I'm thinking JJ or a set/strange small flush (again knowing the stack sizes would help).

Honestly this is a great spot to race in this huge pot and pick up a big stack around bubble time but I think you are crushed here too often, and you are almost never far ahead when you are. I likely lay this down.

[TheTimeIsUp]

I can't edit it.

They both had about 20k.

[MLG]

I fail to see what specific cards have him crushed here quite often, while also leaving UTG+1 enough of a hand to call the initial flop bet with. I think UTG+3 most likely holdings are a set or two overs with the A of diamonds maybe even K of diamonds.

[Apathy]

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I can't edit it.

They both had about 20k.

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Then my comments stand, I think a laydown is prudent (even if MLG disagrees [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]). I think it's close though.

[MLG]

So you put one of the two players on a flopped flush a high percentage of the time here?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
I fail to see what specific cards have him crushed here quite often, while also leaving UTG+1 enough of a hand to call the initial flop bet with. I think UTG+3 most likely holdings are a set or two overs with the A of diamonds maybe even K of diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the utg+1 coldcall is the most likely hand to have you in really bad shape. utg+3 could very easily have JJ or QQ but I agree is more likely to have set or AdK/Qx.

If it was guarenteed that utg +1 would fold of course easy call since you are about 35% against a set and 50% against AdKx, and getting a good price on the rest of your money even when you add JJ to utg+3's range.

The problem is that this gamble isn't worth it because of the times you are crushed by a made flush or more troubling when utg+1 gambles with AdK/Qx and utg+3 has a set (a likely scenario in my mind) leaving you with only 8% equity.

Let mw ask you this instead since we seem to agree on the raisers range, what hands do you see utg+1 coldcalling in this spot that he will now laydown?