Folding KK on an all-undercard flop...to one bet.

[CieloAzor]

Event Buy-In: $50+$5 ($550 total prize pool)
Level III: 50/100 Blinds (25 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 12,222.22 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 9 (11 started)
Seat 1 : craptastic16 starts with 11,450
Seat 2 : CieloAzor starts with 10,325
Seat 3 : geofft81 starts with 10,025
Seat 4 : MacCommons starts with 7,575
Seat 5 : Jimmy19 starts with 10,625
Seat 6 : augmented starts with 32,875
Seat 7 : Git-r-dun starts with 7,675
Seat 8 : mzha0504 starts with 11,125
Seat 9 : coach1126 starts with 8,325
Seat 3 : geofft81 has the dealer button

>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
CieloAzor dealt down K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
MacCommons posts the small blind 50
Jimmy19 posts the big blind 100
augmented folds
Git-r-dun folds
mzha0504 calls 100
coach1126 folds
craptastic16 folds
CieloAzor raises 275 to 375
geofft81 folds
MacCommons calls 325
Jimmy19 folds
mzha0504 calls 275

>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
MacCommons checks
mzha0504 bets 3,475
CieloAzor thinks for a while and folds

Thoughts?

[gobboboy]

It took me a second to see that you have a club in your hand.

Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this.

[ QUOTE ]
It took me a second to see that you have a club in your hand.

Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, haven't you ever heard of a pattern mapper? Jeez, n00b.

[yvesaint]

with your reads, your image, and how far (or not far) you are from the money, good fold



BLLLLAGGGGGGGGGGHRHHGHRHG

[adanthar]

puke

pukepukepukepukepukebarf

What on earth gives you the idea he has more than 12 outs?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]


Why did you fold this? Ever? There is absolutely no reason to ever fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my initial reaction, too, but I think it's a lot closer than it looks. Stacks are quite deep, we still have 100 BBs left behind. The amount of dead money is nice but not massive. Even the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] has 12 outs here, and if you give it a J it picks up 3 gutshot outs as well, for example. AT or AQ also gain 3 extra outs. So most plausible A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hands we can run into are going to be minor dogs or minor favorites. Two pair and set holdings are also quite plausible. We're probably about even, but a little worse, against two pair (counterfeit outs and flush outs) and a reasonable dog to a set. If we push now, which is the only option I'd be particularly happy with if I were going to continue playing, since I'm not calling off 40% of my stack and folding here, then we're going to need to win ~40% of the time (my math may be off, I'm doing it in my head) to be chip EV profitable here. I think we'll probably win just a little more than that, so I think it's a close call.

EDIT: I think the best case scenario is that we're up against a combo draw with the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which we smash. Taking that into account makes things more favorable, but I don't know how likely it is.

[CieloAzor]

He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

[gobboboy]

[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here?

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[ QUOTE ]
Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

[/ QUOTE ]
Jesus tapdancing christ, yes.

[ QUOTE ]
If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Every decision can take a while if you think about it too hard. I think it was sirio who said "Poker is too difficult a game to screw up by getting the easy decisions wrong." You have an overpair and the 2nd nut flush draw. NO ONE IN THE WORLD pushes a flush on this board. The best he can possibly have is J9, and I sincerely doubt he has it.

You're kidding yourself if you think this is a hard decision. This is like saying "I raised with KK and someone pushed behind me!!! My edge isn't THAT big. I'll fold and wait for a better spot."

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
He bet 3 times the pot on a monotone flop. Nobody thinks he's protecting a hand here? Also notice how deep the stacks are and how utterly uninvested I am. Are you sure I have an edge?

If you think this is a no-brainer, you aren't thinking hard enough. Ask yourself what hands he commits that many chips with and come up with a range.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're 53% vs. the absolute best hand he could possibly have, top 2, and 52% vs. AcQx. He has something better than that around 1% of the time, something worse than that...a whole lot of the time, and the nuts approximately never.

This is not even a small edge, it's >10%.

[CieloAzor]

Hmm, I tend to think he's protecting a set of 8s or the straight much more than 1% of the time. I was putting villain pretty squarely on 2 pair or better here, although the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + a pair is admittedly possible. The sets have me beat much worse than what I've got over the 2-pair and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] + pair hands.

I should've ran some calculations through before I posted but I didn't. Seeing that I'm favored over top two is certainly giving me pause here. Pushing has got to be +cEV I think.

On the other hand, I'll win this small tourney about 3x the average by playing small-ball early and pushing people around late. They've got a similar small-field $100+10 tourney on weekends and I've won straight up 6/14 times this year with fields of 24, 22, and 15 amongst my wins. It's not a given that I should race 2-pair here.