The Perfect Storm: Anatomy of a 300 BB Downturn

[ResidentParanoid]

I just went through a month that ended with a 300BB loss overall. This was over about 6,000 hands of PP 15/30. The previous 10,000 hands I had a win of about 400 BB. I was studying my pokertracker stats for the before and after, and thought I'd post them for comment here. In this first message, I'll just post the numbers for comment with a few observations. The last column is the percent difference in each stat for the bad 6000 vs the good 10000 hands. In the subsequent posts below, I'll post some observations based on the discussion, and maybe some additional stats.



My observations while playing hands during the downturn was that I kept getting drawn out on when I had top pair, big kicker. Also, I seemed to have gotten fewer than my share of AA, KK, and QQ. Also, when I did get these hands, the flop came with draws very often, with many of the draws coming in. Finally, I rarely found myself with a big draw (flushes, straights), especially when I already had something like top pair, and had to bow out on the flop or turn more than my share. Finally, I found myself paying off straights or better in monster pots very often because the pot was so big.

Not my first ugly month, but just about my worst in total $$. All comments and discussion are welcome. Can you pinpoint something other than bad luck in my stats?

[pudley4]

VP$IP = 21%

isn't that too high?

PFR = 7-8%

isn't that too low?

Maybe you had a lot of marginally -EV hands hit last month, but miss this month.

Also:

Won at showdown - last month 56%, this month 46%

This helps confirm the "got drawn out on/had to pay off because of the huge pot size" Theory

[ResidentParanoid]

[ QUOTE ]


VP$IP = 21%

isn't that too high?



[/ QUOTE ]

My Saw_Flop_Not_a_Blind is about 15% (15% during the bad run, 15.5% during the good run). I try to see the flop from the BB in multiway hands with many hands. Also, SB sees a lot of flops when not raised.

[ QUOTE ]


PFR = 7-8%

isn't that too low?


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe. I'm usually looking at multiway flops, so I'll limp with some suited aces and other "drawing hands" that others may raise with in LP.

[ QUOTE ]
Won at showdown - last month 56%, this month 46%


[/ QUOTE ]

A sickening difference in that stat, isn't it? Maybe I should have folded more of these "top pair" type hands when someone gets crazy on the turn or river?

[Nick B.]

Your style of play has probably changed. Instead of trying to pick up pots that nobody wants, you are probably waiting for hands. Also on you big hands, you are probably scared of monsters under the bed. Like top two, you are probably scared about somebody drawing to a flush, so you are trying to force people out instead of trying to get their money in. Anyways, obviously I don't know exactly what your problem is and I may be way off, but that is usually my problem. If you pm me your name, I could check in my database for any hands.

[ResidentParanoid]

Thanks for your comments.

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of trying to pick up pots that nobody wants, you are probably waiting for hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my agression factor has been fairly consistent both pre-flop and post. My Agg_Fact was about the same at 1 and 1.1. I have tried to do more check-raising on the flop of late, both to narrow a large field, or as a value bet when it is multiway with many already in for a bet.


[ QUOTE ]
Also on you big hands, you are probably scared of monsters under the bed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting observation, but I think it has been the opposite. I've sometimes put in an extra bet or two when my trips or two-pair get's chased down by a straight, for example.



[ QUOTE ]
Like top two, you are probably scared about somebody drawing to a flush, so you are trying to force people out instead of trying to get their money in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't observe a problem with people folding their hands against me during the bad run. But the 2 to 5 outers, and runner-runner draws seem to be hitting very often. Of course, I love these guys for drawing when the odds aren't there, so I'm not complaining.

[Cosimo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think my agression factor has been fairly consistent both pre-flop and post. My Agg_Fact was about the same at 1 and 1.1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been led to believe that an AF-TOT (minus PF) of 2+ is good. Mine is about 1.6, and I'm having a tough time pushing it higher. For someone that knows, how do these AFs look for Party 15-30 (for Paranoid) and .5-1 (for me)?

[ResidentParanoid]

More data: Results from AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AKo

Good Run
298 times out of 10,407 hands (2.9%) winning 1.96 BB per hand

Bad Run
199 times out of 5974 hands (3.3%) winning 0.87 BB per hand

Turns out I had more of these (percentage wise) during the bad run, although they earned 50% as much per hand. A difference of 200 BB in potential winnings right there.

[ResidentParanoid]

Without Pre-flop, My AF-TOT was:

Good Run: 2.08

Bad Run: 2.03

Two words to get your AF higher: check-raise.

[James282]

Check-raising is so over rated in online play because players will raise with like 50% of the hands they would bet on the turn and you can three-bet them easily. Whereas players shut down after a check raise, and will often call many more hands than they would bet. Don't worry about your "stats" for crying out loud.
-James

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't worry about your "stats" for crying out loud.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is great advice.

scrub