Over pair against a 2+2er

[MrWookie47]

Look at the board. Hero knew villain was a 2+2er for sure, and I think we can be sure that they both knew each other.

Villain 3bets preflop AA-TT, maybe 99, AKo/s, maybe AQs.
Hero caps preflop - AA-QQ, maybe JJ, AKs, maybe AKo. Villain knows this.

Villain check/raises the flop. 99 is out. AQs is out. AK is probably out.

Hero 3bets knowing this. Thus, he must think he's ahead of villain's range. AK is out, and 3betting QQ here would be pretty bad.

Villain bets the turn. Betting AK here would be utterly ridiculous. Villain has AA-TT. Thus, hero should only raise here with his own AA or JJ because otherwise he's not ahead of 55% of villains range. If the pot wasn't utterly huge, you could make a case for folding QQ, really, but the chace of villain acting irrationally with AK is signficant enough compared to the pot size to warrant calling down.

Villain calls the raise and checks the river. I can see a value bet with AA or JJ here, but not KK. The chance that villain has JJ or TT is somewhat diminished, but he might be getting fancy. You hope to beat QQ, and that's it. A scared AA is still a possibility. KK is a good check here, although I would have called down from the turn bet.

In the original hand, there are more hands that hero is beating with KK. He's ahead of TT, and because of villains flop 3bet, JJ is less likely. 99 was a small consideration. Thus, I can see a value bet with KK more.

Edit: Hell. Now I've just got to be able to do this at the tables.

[Redd]

I agree that it's obvious that Villain has a PP here.
If villain has a set, he's playing it really fancy here. He should have capped the flop, and given that he didn't, he should have 3-bet the turn when Hero walked into his trap. I probably would have bet-3bet the flop to trap the moran, too. And don't forget, bayesian shows that there's four times as many hands that aren't sets here (ie, if Hero has AA, KK or QQ is four times as likely than JJ or TT).

It seems more to me like Villain is trying to protect his hand here; his check-raise is facing the moran with two and he donkbet without capping the flop which would help bloat the pot. So far all he's done is check-raise the flop and donkbet the turn, which doesn't represent that much strength to me. Like I said in my OP, I wouldn't have called the turn with a queen here, and I think this is really fancy for a set, so I don't think I'd play any hand the same on all streets.

Regardless, I'd agree that KK isn't over 55% on the river. I'd change my original decision to check KK behind too.

[MrWookie47]

Lest you forget, we also know that hero holds a PP. If we assume hero doesn't have a set, then there a 6 hands that are sets, and 13 that are not, making it slightly better than twice as likely that villain doesn't have a set.

Actually, if hero doesn't have a PP, then there are 6 ways each for villain to have AA-QQ, and 3 each for JJ-TT, making it 18 to 6, or 3 times as likely that villain doesn't have a set. Where'd you get 4x?

[Entity]

Hero should be value betting any hand he raised on the turn. Whether he should have raised his QQ on the turn, however, is another matter.

[DavidC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero is UTG with [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

<font color="red"> Hero raises </font>, 1 fold, <font color="blue"> 2+2er 3-bets </font>, <font color="green"> BB calls </font>, <font color="red">Hero caps </font>, <font color="blue"> 2+2er calls </font>, <font color="green"> BB calls </font>.

Flop: (12.5 SB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

<font color="blue"> 2+2er bets </font>, <font color="green"> BB calls </font>, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font>, <font color="blue"> 2+2er 3-bets </font>, <font color="green"> BB (moran) calls </font>, <font color="red"> Hero caps</font>, <font color="blue"> 2+2er calls </font>, <font color="green"> BB calls </font>,

Turn: (12 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

<font color="blue"> 2+2er bets </font>, <font color="blue"> BB calls </font> , <font color="red"> Hero raises </font> , <font color="blue"> 2+2er calls </font> , <font color="green"> BB folds </font>.

River: (18 BB) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

<font color="blue"> 2+2er checks </font> , <font color="red"> Hero ???? </font>

What hands do you bet/call, bet/fold, check behind?

And why.

All this is from memory, but that's pretty much the gist of it.

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Well, since we know that you have unsuited cards, you either have AK here or a pair. Since you went nuts, you have a pair, maybe even a good one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Since he went nuts and the board is rainbow, he probably has a pair too.

So, what's your question, you raised the turn and he called you. He either has TT,QQ,KK, or AA. Since he's a 2+2er he doesn't have AA or JJ... he therefore has KK, QQ, or TT. PF he COULD have 99, but that would be weird as he should probably have folded. However, if he had 99 he wouldn't have slowed down on the turn.

Your enemy hand range is KK,QQ,TT.

Obviously bet AA and KK.

When you have QQ, it gets a little tougher. It's a break-even bet, so you should do it, just for your image, even though it won't add to your bottom line, unless it will add to the rake (which would make it a negative play, so don't bet in that case).

The only question is, would villain have gotten this ag with TT on that flop when you were pounding him? In my opinion, probably, because he's OOP and doesn't want to give overcards a free play to bet him...

So, if it won't increase the rake, bet hands QQ and better, otherwise, bet hands KK and better.

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I was just about to write this post, but you beat me to it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Don't you hate that, when you get everything typed into the text box, post it, then see that someone else had written exactly the same thing, word for word, so you have to delete your post before anyone notices? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

... Actually, there's some respectable-types on here who've said that villain couldn't have TT, in that case, it wouldn't be prudent to bet QQ. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

--Dave.

[DavidC]

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Hero should be value betting any hand he raised on the turn. Whether he should have raised his QQ on the turn, however, is another matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially if villain would have three-bet, to see where he stood. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Lest you forget, we also know that hero holds a PP. If we assume hero doesn't have a set, then there a 6 hands that are sets, and 13 that are not, making it slightly better than twice as likely that villain doesn't have a set.

Actually, if hero doesn't have a PP, then there are 6 ways each for villain to have AA-QQ, and 3 each for JJ-TT, making it 18 to 6, or 3 times as likely that villain doesn't have a set. Where'd you get 4x?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was a mistake on my part - I decided that since there were 2x as many KKs as TTs and 2x as many JJs as QQs, then there were 4x as many total; so I was half-counting the set PPs [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] Sorry for the confusion.

[AdamL]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you hate that, when you get everything typed into the text box, post it, then see that someone else had written exactly the same thing, word for word, so you have to delete your post before anyone notices? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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Well now, mine wasn't *exactly* the same I guess... there were some minor changes. I think I mentioned that villain could'nt have TT or somefink...

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[@bsolute_luck]

some great thoughts/responses so far...and we still haven't seen results.

regarding the check/raise: it isn't for protection at all. it is merely to show Hero in this hand, villain knows he capped preflop and he's still going to come at him that he too have a premium pair and NOT 3-betting with AQ and such. the check/raise on the flop is beautiful because it does look like protection, and villain knows hero is going to 3-bet his premium pair, so there is a lot of value here (plus if hero has AK, he's getting punished for trying to bluff at this pot)

i think the turn donkbet is my favorite part. because here is where villain wants to get in his head. villain knows he 3-bet the flop after a c/r and yet he's still betting into hero because we both know if he doesn't have QQ, he's raising here, so why would villain bet into hero? now the turn is NOT 3-bet by villain, which should scream no set....shouldn't it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [a side question: what would you do if you're 3-bet here by villain?]

so the river hero has a decision when it is checked to him: should he bet. villain thinks hero's probably going to bet as he raised the turn. the question for hero is: what am i going to do if i get check/raised? again, hero knows villain's range of hands and vice versa.

if hero has JJ-TT, obvious bet. we've eliminated QQ (hopefully). AA and KK are left. i do not think KK should be betting here, because villain does not have QQ based on the turn donkbet, so we're not beating any hands.

that leaves AA: should AA bet here? i think you need to answer your question of what do you do if you're check/raised. because you're basically hoping villain is either playing QQ like a doofus or KK.